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Growing optimism

The landslide victory of Fidesz in Hungary's elections creates excitement for the first time in years; too bad most international analysts are easily distracted


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#1 Posted by

jan fleur
May 12, 2010 8:36 am CET

The Czech political process is evolving and it's a matter for the Czech people. I have confidence in their ability to solve problems, and I expect that will be done in their own unique way. The U.K. has a government now, a Liberal/Conservative one; it should offer the markets enough to have stability in the economy. Since the Iraq war politics seems to have left a lot of disillusionment for many and most people just try and get on with living. Placing trust in politics has been damaged and just getting on with life whatever politics does seem to be uppermost here. Jiri, could you say the USA had 'stable government' in the last 10 years? We need good news in this world, the pledge to cut weapons helps, stable banking practice is returning. The Obama administration seems to be making a better impact and a good USA administration will help a lot. It does seem that people have little confidence in politics and looking towards what they can do for themselves seems in the ascendancy. Well, I have a day of commitment to change, take care Jiri.

#2 Posted by

Jiri Hubacek
May 12, 2010 6:35 am CET

" I believe referendum is by simple majority, proportional representation has a good percentage of interest; "

The sixty percent majority for referenda of importance is not a number I picked out of hat.
The referendum for proportional representation was done in British Columbia in two different elections.In both referenda the critical point was sixty percent(plus one vote) in order to be passed.
In the first one it was relatively close as only about two percent of needed votes was missing.
In the next one it was not even close as yes votes did not even get a majority.

So,I agree that it will not pass in UK,if it ever comes to that.Cooperation will be needed for government to be an effective factor in life.
Yet,UK is lucky.Most other countries(including Czech Republic) with a proportional representatin in elections have no stable governments and are easily distracted by internal parliamentary politics which cause ineffectiveness in the way they govern.

We did not see truly weak government in Czech Republic yet but watch for this coming election.We will be called Italy of Central Europe.(how many governments did Italy had since end of WWII?Answer is dozens and dozens.

#3 Posted by

jan fleur
May 11, 2010 6:19 pm CET

Jiri, I will try. Out of all investment in Wall St by the E.U. pre crash, the U.K invests 40% of that. The banking sector in the U.K. has been a huge earner and tax provider for any government. The independence of the bank of the bank of England in setting interest rates also means that property and debt are also controlled within the U.K. The first past the post system will favour a Conservative majority in general which in turn allows for a fiscal policy that cuts public services and controls tax revenue. Proportional voting would mean it unlikely a Conservative majority could ever have the power it has held (Mrs Thatcher) in the past. In turn that means a policy of public spending cuts; the ability to shape aspects of life through fiscal engineering (union power) minimum wage, and a range of legislation would be blocked without a good majority. Cross party support exists for many issues, but differences on Europe and the main topics, Education, Health, Defence exist.
All parties co-operate in crisis (war, depression of markets etc) . The U.K. has to reposition itself post market crash, and also post Iraq. Does it do this with a closer alliance to Europe? Or maintain it's independence in areas of banking, defence and legal system (economic law, human rights). Many see proportional representation as modern and progressive, others favour traditional established government rule. A lot has changed since the first G.W Bush administration, and is still changing; the UK has close links with the USA. Defeating proportional representation is the surest way to keep considerable party power; it does not favour Labour to have the first past the post. I believe referendum is by simple majority, proportional representation has a good percentage of interest; I feel it would be defeated if held in context with the current situation. It may happen in 10 years time, I suspect the following 10 years will be Conservative, after that trade and defence will require change. Social conditions and a desire for a new approach to communication within communities will take time to evolve in the U.K. Overall there will be a functioning government, people will still have tea at 3pm, the Big Ben clock will turn and turn, and the British way of life will continue much as it has in the past 100years. At present there is a struggle for stability, I hope to improve my lot by making a better effort, and avoiding politics!

#4 Posted by

Jiri Hubacek
May 11, 2010 4:26 pm CET

"....... the markets won't allow instability....as I said to you some time ago..Iv'e retired from politics..."

We are not really disagreeing,right?
As far as I can see it we are saying the same thing in different ways.

Now,how about if Cons and Laborites form a "big" coalition like Germany did in their previous incarnation?
It is still a possibility,however remote it may be.

#5 Posted by

jan fleur
May 11, 2010 3:35 pm CET

Jiri, I have sensored my viewpoint a lot. What I will say is a Conservative agenda will prevail, as to how, well, ....... the markets won't allow instability....as I said to you some time ago..Iv'e retired from politics...

#6 Posted by

Jiri Hubacek
May 11, 2010 2:43 pm CET

Referenda for such important matters are usually drawn in such a way that at least 60% of eligible voters is needed to pass the subject matter.
I suspect that UK referendum -if it comes to that-will be drawn with two thirds of majority in mind.That is very unlikely to happen in UK,would you not say so?
UK conservatives may offer such referenda to Libs and Libs may accept it as a first step toward their goal.

So,while Labor is trying to form coalition with Libs,realistic situation will most likely see Libs-Conservative government.

#7 Posted by

jan fleur
May 11, 2010 8:17 am CET

Jiri, as soon as the Conservative's realised the Liberal's were going to talk with Labour they offered a referendum on proportional representation. This would allow time to defeat the referendum and in turn dump the Liberals. The prospect of the possibility of proportional representation will reveal the real power in U.K politics. As I said before; proportional representation cannot be allowed under any circumstances; even if there is a parliamentary legal route to do so. In effect what I am saying is that even under if proportional representation was possible under legal democratic means, it will be stopped. There is a limit as to how much the political parties can change the base institutions of the U.K. which operate under their own rules. It may be worth watching to the non-UK observer to understand this, I may be wrong; I have no scientific basis to back this up. As to whether it is right or wrong I have no view, I can say it is British and has served the last 250 years. The next 10 years I expect will see a Conservative government with a very cautious interaction with the E.U. The rebuilding of banking relationships with Wall Street will try and produce the financial security the U.K. had before the 'crash'. I hope it does not cause disharmony within the country, the future looks tough enough in a changing world.

#8 Posted by

jan fleur
May 9, 2010 9:13 am CET

Jiri, political process is Europe differs greatly from the America's , and comparisons are to divorced to make. .It is my gut instinct that in the U.K. proportional representation will be resisted by established institutions, by fair or other means. By this the 'establishment' will use whatever means to ensure the electoral process remains as it is.
One thing the election here has done; is make people think about a better way of delivering government. The financial basis of UK institutions does not allow for proportional representation; and thus, regardless of what the people 'think', it will be resisted. The UK is in a period of defining its role in a changing world, it will stick to that which has ensured freedom within the U.K. and fosters relationships with like minded nations. The Lisbon Treaty has been a 'flimsy' transitional document that is holding together a loose Europe that lacks direction.
The Czech ratification was necessary to ensure its European orientation in what Mr Klaus calls the 'German Euro zone'. As long as Europe does not slip back to a 'nationalist paranoid zone' the prospects are brighter than its past history. Politics would do well to pay attention to basic humanism and ensure that mans inhumanity to man does not repeat its classic fault lines. If the E.U. has a mission, then humanity is that mission, which as Mr Havel pointed out will require more participation from others who are non-political. However, as you know, this is just my ramble before breakfast, have a good day Jiri.

#9 Posted by

Jiri Hubacek
May 9, 2010 7:02 am CET

"The shock to 'major institutions' that proportional representation would present will never be allowed to gather any momentum."

Jan,you can see how much damage there is done to different countries(on extreme side is Italy)by proportional representation.Many government are unable to forge ahead with any meaningful legislations and just turn and turn over leaving the nations in perpetual disinterest.Elections become just another expense for national budgets and infighting in the countries is almost as bad as if they fought external enemies.
In that context,the political systems of USA,UK and Canada are perhaps most relevant.
European systems are far too populists to count.
What I mean,I do not think only two or three parties have the right to govern but if any other party reaches some kind of treshold on its own,then it also should become relevant without artificial "equity" in politics.

#10 Posted by

jan fleur
May 8, 2010 5:02 pm CET

Jiri; within political change across Europe surley no family should ask themselves 'Will this change cost me my life'. Europe has a history of strong 'nationalist' parties who dealt with 'non favourable economic humans' after periods of recession and apathy. The task of enabling change from 'redundant left wing' to realistic aspiration has to be all inclusive. The article has to point out that responsible also means the non abuse of power. The common values as stated in article 2 are in the main universal humanistic ones, non political.

#11 Posted by

jan fleur
May 8, 2010 3:34 pm CET

Jiri; the Liberal party value proportional representation changes in the U.K. electoral system. It has popular support and the election results by definition indicate this. The Liberals will ask for a referendum on this point; however, this is a greater threat to right wing aspirations than the left could ever muster. I see no chance of proportional representation being a way of life in the U.K. and the liberals will get little from the conservatives. A liberal/ labour pact is not an option as the country voted for change. A new election will be called by the conservatives as soon as possible; to shake of any liberal claims in power. The future of the U.K. in Europe will depend on whether the conservatives can fight off the 'proportional representation' issue; if they do, then withdrawal from Lisbon Treaty constraints will follow. The shock to 'major institutions' that proportional representation would present will never be allowed to gather any momentum.

#12 Posted by

Jiri Hubacek
May 8, 2010 2:09 pm CET

This article exposes a failings and weaknesses of socialist governments anywhere.
Bloated public "services" that the rest of the working people can't support for much longer,corruption and the sense of personal entitlement without individual effort to be responsible.
This is what will happen in Czech Republic(CSSD).This is what happened in UK,Greece,Spain.

Hungary had chosen wisely in their elections.UK is on the way with likely right,centre coalition.
Will Czechs follow in this necessary trend?

#13 Posted by

jan fleur
May 6, 2010 8:01 pm CET

"The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities. These values are common to the Member States in a society in which pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, justice, solidarity and equality between women and men prevail."

Article 2 Lisbon Treaty.
It is with deep concern I draw attention to the above, who is looking after the rights of those living in the east of the country?
 
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