Dust yourself off

By Jeffrey White

Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek can be excused for making a fool of himself in Strasbourg, France, last week, as he undiplomatically castigated U.S. President Barack Obama's economic stimulus plan as "the road to hell."

Just 24 hours earlier, Topolánek's enfeebled coalition government collapsed, and he arrived in Strasbourg rather like the old pop star whose relevancy is on the wane but, as if in protest, continues to tour anyway.

Crippled by the no-confidence vote and with no political mandate to lead his own country, let alone Europe, Topolánek tried a little too hard to appear the relevant statesman. As Piotr Maciej Kaczynski, an analyst at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, puts it, "I think he overreacted to the events of the day before. He overdid it. He was offensive."

Topolánek quickly distanced himself from the remarks as pundits prognosticated the premature end of the Czech EU presidency. Considering the week ahead, those predictions may be premature.

Topolánek is down in the dirt and bloodied from the fall, but the question now is whether he can pick himself up, dust himself off and get back on the proverbial horse. This week's emergency G20 economic summit in London, which Topolánek attends as EU president, will go a long way toward answering whether he and the Czech presidency are still relevant - and there are reasons to be optimistic.

While an ineffectual consensus builder and leader at home, in Brussels Topolánek has been a different story these past three months, leavened by substantial successes during the first half of the Czech presidency. It's just that these so-called "victories" have not been heralded in the Western media.

Czechs worked to broker a deal between Ukraine and Russia in January, and gas deliveries did return to pipelines that feed much of Europe.

During the EU's annual spring summit in Brussels, Czech efforts at the negotiation table were pivotal for pushing through a 200 billion euro stimulus package that EU leaders announced would include 5 billion euros from the bloc's unspent budget to fund energy and IT infrastructure projects, including money for the long-stalled Nabucco natural gas pipeline from the Caspian Sea.

At the same meeting, leaders pledged to increase financial support for the ailing economies of Eastern Europe, saying there is room to pay out as much as 50 billion euros to the region to fund short-term debt payments.

These were victories not just because the issues hewed to the Czech EU presidency's stated goals of promoting energy security, research and development, and an "eastern partnership" that hopes to pave the way for more EU engagement with Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus and the Balkans. These successes came on highly divisive issues that required consensus to move forward. Only weeks before EU leaders had failed to make headway at another emergency summit.

The aid pledges to Eastern Europe in particular highlight the impact of the Czech presidency to date and suggest its continued importance.

Eastern Europe is quickly becoming a big story of the economic crisis. Governments throughout the region - though notably, not the Czechs - borrowed and spent heavily to improve institutions and infrastructure ahead of EU membership. After 2004, the governments cashed in: Foreign investment poured in, property values soared, housing markets boomed and ordinary customers found themselves with access to credit that was unthinkable during the dark days of communism. Now, the bills are due and there's no money to pay them.

Ukraine, Belarus, Hungary, Serbia and Latvia are all currently leveraged to the IMF. I was recently on a reporting trip to Latvia, where economists talked of a 10.5 percent fall in the nation's gross domestic product, unemployment approaching 15 percent and an economy that could follow the lead of Iceland into utter collapse.

These countries feel that the Czech Republic can speak for them at the negotiation table, and will carry the region's concerns for a full airing in London. East European nations are among those with the most at stake in a continuing, strong Czech presidency and therefore will be those watching Topolánek closest in the next week, which also includes a NATO summit and the EU-US summit.

"The Czech Republic made it clear before its EU presidency that it would put special emphasis on the economic situation in Eastern Europe," says Jan Techau, head of European policy studies at the German Council on Foreign Relations. "That made sense not only from a regional perspective but also for the EU as a whole. The Czechs can easily make Eastern Europe a pan-EU cause."

London will present a larger canvas of leaders with an opportunity to forge greater common ground in responding to the economic crisis. European leaders want to appear unified - which is no small reason why many viewed Topolánek's remarks last week in Strasbourg as inappropriate and ill-timed. He seemed to undermine that very unity.

While European leaders might remain angry at Topolánek for straying too far from the nest, the reality is that there is no united European front for the G20 gathering. Europe is deeply divided over the extent to which fiscal stimulus should play a role in helping Europe stem the crisis, and whether passing tougher financial regulation policies is not more important. The bloc hasn't even come close to talking about the kind of stimulus spending the Obama administration advocates. Several countries, France and Germany, in particular, remain resistant to large national stimulus plans. The irony is that there were many people sitting in the European Parliament's chambers listening to Topolánek last week who probably agreed with his overall message if not the way he delivered it. That makes Topolánek's an important voice at the table in London. Topolánek does need to strike a more conciliatory tone this time around, and he has shown the ability to build consensus at the EU level already. There is a real opportunity in London to establish common ground among the European countries present as members of the G20 (Britain, France, Italy and Germany) while also representing those not at the table (Central and Eastern Europe).

Deftly working both the press conferences and the backrooms would return Topolánek, and the Czech Republic, to European relevance quicker than any bombastic speech to EU parliamentarians.

Czech credibility at the EU level is undoubtedly hurting, but the real reason is not because of some speech or the squabbling of domestic politicians, but because of the country's shameful waffling on the Lisbon Treaty.

Topolánek's own credibility is attached to Lisbon, given his inability to hold his own party together on the issue.

"Czech relevance in Europe for now really boils down to the ratification of Lisbon," Techau says.

In Prague, the engine of Czech politics sputters, coughs and lurches ever onward. Lisbon has a chance to pass in the Czech Senate, though Klaus' influence is still a factor.

In Brussels, the failure of the Czechs to ratify the Lisbon Treaty is an embarrassment. Topolánek, sleeves rolled up and back to work on the European stage, might still get the cold shoulder from European leaders in London and beyond. If he does, Lisbon is the reason.

Czech inaction on the treaty appears as a different kind of no confidence vote - a vote against Europe itself.

- The author is a former Prague Post news editor. Now based in Berlin, he writes on Central and Eastern Europe for the Christian Science Monitor, Der Spiegel and other publications.

Jeffrey White can be reached at
features@praguepost.com