The long and winding road

Czechoslovakia came apart in 1993, but Czechs and Slovaks have remained remarkably close. Television stations create shows spanning both nations. Fans from one side cheer for the ice hockey or soccer team of the other side (unless they play each other, of course!). As an unwritten rule, after a Czech president is elected, before heading anywhere else, he visits Slovakia - and vice versa.

And now in recent parliamentary elections, the people of both republics seem to have read from the same script. When the Czechs cast their ballots May 28 and the Slovaks June 12, they voted out the party that everyone expected to win and voted in a right-wing coalition composed of a mixture of old and new.

In the Czech Republic, the massive campaign of the Social Democrats (ČSSD) misfired. They were expected to win by a huge margin. This would have allowed them to pick a coalition partner or rule in a minority government supported by the Communist Party (KSČM). On election day, the ČSSD only managed to secure 22 percent of the vote, down from around 30 percent that all the pre-election surveys had predicted. Their arch-enemy, the Civic Democrats (ODS) came in second and will now form a coalition government with two new kids on the block - TOP 09 and Public Affairs (VV) - replacing the popular caretaker government composed of career bureaucrats. TOP 09 and VV are both liberal parties. The former is run by an aristocrat who grew up in Austria, Switzerland and Germany, and the latter by a popular TV personality.

The Slovak dénouement was no less dramatic. For the past four years, the country had been ruled by a coalition of three parties: the nominally social democratic Smer, the much more conservative and nationalist Slovak National Party (SNS) and the Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS). Smer managed to continually climb in the polls, despite governing a country during the economic crisis. At times, the party's voter-approval rating hovered at around 40 percent. The closest rivals could barely get above 10 percent, so Smer was seen as being on the course to completely dominate Slovak politics. While in recent months the party seemed to be losing support, it was not at a dramatic rate.

However, just before the election, its two coalition partners, mired in corruption scandals, suddenly entered freefall. Still, when the votes were counted, it was difficult not to be surprised at the scale of the coalition disaster. SNS barely managed to clear the 5 percent threshold. HZDS, which had dominated Slovak politics throughout the 1990s, found itself outside Parliament. It is the end of an era. HZDS leader Vladimír Mečiar, who was prime minister three times, literally disappeared from the public stage - not even addressing supporters or the media after the elections.

In fact, the voters effectively rejected all extremist politics. Another stalwart of Slovak politics, the Hungarian Coalition Party (SMK), was left without parliamentary presence. Ethnic Hungarians - and, apparently, a few Slovaks - voted instead for a splinter group: the aptly named Bridge (Most-Híd). This is certainly good news for the country. SMK was openly supported by the nationalist prime minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán. Most-Híd, on the other hand, has a much more pragmatic view of Slovak-Hungarian relations. It has a mixed Hungarian-Slovak leadership and is led by Béla Bugár, a charismatic figure who is popular both among Slovaks and the Hungarian minority.

Now Slovakia heads toward a right-wing coalition. This will be led by the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKÚ), Slovakia's strongest right-wing party, which led two coalition governments in the late '90s and early 2000s. The liberal Freedom and Solidarity party (SaS), which was formed only a few months ago, will be the largest junior partner, joined by the Christian Democrats, Slovakia's oldest political party, and the aforementioned Most-Híd.

Both countries will thus have right-wing governments, elected on an anti-corruption and fiscal responsibility ticket. The parallels, though, end here.

On the Czech side, the new coalition is quite homogeneous and was quick to formulate priorities, which include swift fiscal consolidation and anti-corruption measures.

In Slovakia, things are much more difficult. The new coalition is mindful of its precarious existence: It has a majority of only eight MPs. The partners have already suggested they will keep the popular 13th-month pensions introduced by the outgoing government. The Christian Democrats will sit uneasily with the liberal SaS, who promised, for example, to legalize marijuana.

In the election campaign, the Slovak right-wing parties were vocal in their opposition to the Greek bailout. The parties, as well as the media, reveled in stories about Greeks allegedly retiring at 52 to live on 2,500 euro per month pensions. Faced with a barrage of similar news reports and with popular anger, the Smer-led government decided not to fully back the bailout. It authorized the package but informed European partners that Slovakia will only decide after the elections on actually committing finances.

A comical game has ensued. The serving prime minister, Robert Fico, says his government will only commit if it gets a verbal mandate from the incoming coalition. The coalition politicians, who a few days ago were saying they were categorically against a loan to Greece, now say they are washing their hands of the problem and that the government can do whatever it wants. In just the same way, they are now sending mixed messages on approving the proposed European Stabilization Fund. They know their approval will enrage their voters, but intransigence angers their EU partners.

Yet another challenge revolves around the so-called "contribution bonus," a flagship reform scheme of SaS. The plan is to replace all social benefits with a universal income floor for everyone. The state would pay a lump sum or, in the case of employees, a contribution to salary. This is essentially a basic income scheme, as known in the West from the work of leftist thinkers such as Philippe van Parijs. While the aim of left-leaning economists, like van Parijs, is to guarantee everyone a decent income, the liberals in the SaS love the scheme because it abolishes the need for a multi-faceted government social policy. They want a radical reduction in taxation, and naturally the basic income they propose is very low. The other parties are not in favor, and the parties are now in discussion about a suitable compromise.

With a shaky coalition dependent on a small majority, the situation in Slovakia will remain precarious. Smer, which did considerably better than the Czech ČSSD in elections and remains a strong opposition party, could easily force early elections and come back. And herein lies the biggest problem of Slovak politics.

In the Czech Republic, the new government will face standard political opposition. The ČSSD is a long-established party with a wide base of experts, solid grassroots activities and good international relations. In contrast, Smer is a one-man show. The party is led by Fico, a talented and tireless orator. Despite its social democratic label, the party's politics are essentially conservative, with strong support for the Catholic Church, big business and limited social intervention. The party was financed by local oligarchs who remain pretty much in control. Ironically, even though Smer has been implicated in quite a few shady deals, the popularity of its leader has shielded it from voter discontent.

So, in Slovakia, this is not the beginning of a new political era. In the capital, Bratislava, the jubilation of the urban elite at the unexpected election result was palpable, but the new coalition will be in for a bumpy ride. The coalition parties were elected less as a result of offering a clear, positive plan and more for just being against Smer and its allies. Besides the Greek issue, the parties have engaged in cheap populism on a number of fronts. SaS, for example, has run a campaign to limit the number of parliamentarians to 100 (from 150) and to impose a price-ceiling on ministerial limousines of 40,000 euros. Their anti-establishment stand continues with calls for referendums on both issues before the fall.

While the Slovak situation seems slightly less stable, responsible, serious politics are not state of the art in the Czech Republic either. VV is already backtracking on some of its more exotic proposals, such as implementing a widespread use of agents provocateurs, undercover agents to offer bribes to officials. More seriously, their proposed economic policies lack substance. The new coalition wants to implement pension reform. Besides paying into a state pay-as-you-go scheme, people would have the option to invest part of their mandatory pension contributions on the financial market. The arguments, as usual with these kind of reforms in Central and Eastern Europe, are not based on sound economics but on clichés about solving negative demographics. Funding is no miracle cure. Contrary to the mantra ideologues repeat, creating individual pension accounts with assets invested in the financial market is no miracle cure, it will not help overcome the basic demographic problems. And one of the first concrete proposals of the three parties has been to introduce university tuition fees. The measure might ultimately make sense, but at the moment, it just masks a lack of ideas about how to really reform universities and the research sector.

Now the politicians - primarily in the "old," established parties - need to start thinking about offering real solutions. If they fail, the next elections will be decided by yet another wave of new parties, whose main attraction will be their novelty, and that would truly be an unfortunate thing for the Czech and Slovak republics to share.

- The author is a fellow at the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies, a former Reuters correspondent and a blogger for the Slovak daily Sme. He is a frequent contributor to op-ed pages in his native Slovakia.

Juraj Draxler can be reached at
features@praguepost.com