Now or never

Barack Obama's ambitious new game plan for fighting the al-Qaida-led insurgency in Afghanistan and Pakistan and his demands for a stronger European role in the effort present EU governments with a make-or-break opportunity to upgrade their hither-to less-than-impressive engagement. The stakes are higher than many in Europe would like to believe. The destruction of al-Qaida and Taliban safe havens in Afghanistan and Pakistan is crucial to the survival of both quasi-failing states, and is needed to stop further terror attacks on both the Western and Muslim worlds.

Afghanistan and Pakistan (AfPak) present a critical test for trans-Atlantic relations and Europe's hopes of crafting a strong new strategic partnership with Washington. EU countries' actions in both countries will also do much to determine Europe's credibility as a global security actor and its ability to leverage nonmilitary "soft power" tools of aid, trade and diplomacy to stabilize troubled nations.

The EU has so far had distinctly different approaches to Afghanistan and Pakistan. A majority of EU states have sent troops to Afghanistan and are pumping in millions of euros to bolster that country's fragile economy, though this has not translated into political influence. By contrast, Europe's relations with Pakistan, a country that is even more pivotal than Afghanistan in combating terrorism, remain exceptionally low-key and uninspired.

The time has passed for reflection, consultation or sitting on the fence. European governments were vocal in their criticism of U.S. policy toward Afghanistan during the Bush administration, and their advice was ignored. With President Obama, Europeans have an opportunity to partner with the United States to seek solutions in the region.

Staying silent

To do so, Europe must pay more attention to both Afghanistan and Pakistan. President Obama is right in describing the AfPak border, with its numerous al-Qaida training camps, as "the most dangerous place in the world." Sadly, European leaders have been unwilling or unable to make a forceful case for curbing al-Qaida-led insurgencies in Afghanistan and Pakistan as a means for ensuring Europe's security.

The EU has mainly left discussion on Afghanistan to NATO, and European policy toward Pakistan has been focused on humanitarian aid with little emphasis on meeting the country's challenging insurgency and governance problems. Europe must now act to forge a proactive new strategy that responds to development and security challenges facing both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Most importantly, it must put its relations with Pakistan higher on its agenda.

The Americans are using increased military power to back their AfPak strategy. They now recognize that Europeans will not send substantially more combat troops to Afghanistan, but, believing that the insurgency cannot be defeated by military action alone, the United States wants Europe to participate in a so-called "civilian surge" that would go hand in hand with an increase in U.S. and NATO boots on the ground. The EU has the tools and the expertise to implement such a "comprehensive approach" by stepping up efforts to improve Afghanistan's governance and address its rule of law deficit. As well as improving law and order, the EU can also strengthen the counter-narcotics drive by switching the focus from eradication to rural development, including the construction of local roads to aid in marketing alternative crops.

Its experience in regional cooperation and integration gives the EU exceptional credibility as an "honest broker" to ease strained relations between Afghanistan and its neighbors, and also contribute to better relations between Pakistan and India. Although it will be more difficult, Europeans could lead the way in opening negotiations with "reconcilable" Taliban insurgents and militants who either have no links to al-Qaida or are willing to sever ties.

European countries elicit less hostility than the United States in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This is especially true in Pakistan, where U.S. drone attacks on insurgents in tribal areas continue to cause public outrage. Washington's standing in Pakistan has also been tarnished by Bush administration support for former President Pervez Musharraf, whereas the EU has built credibility among Pakistan's political elite - including lawyers, human rights activists and pro-democracy groups - by emphasizing free and fair elections, insisting on the independence of the judiciary and concentrating on building stronger civilian institutions.

Europe's performance in Afghanistan has not been uniformly grim. The EU is a leading aid donor there, providing a total of 3.7 billion euros over 2002-06. A stronger European military effort was promised at both the NATO and EU-U.S. summits in April this year, but, make no mistake, European efforts in Afghanistan will be judged by the success or failure of its EUPOL police mission. This EU flagship operation is unfortunately overshadowed by the much larger U.S. police program, and also dwarfed by similar schemes run by individual EU member states. Serious staff shortages continue to be a problem. Although EU governments have pledged to double the mission staff to 400 members, recruiting the additional police officers is proving difficult. To make the Afghan posting more attractive, governments should be ready to raise salaries, hire so-called "contract agents" or to turn to the private sector to supply police officers.

To be effective in Afghanistan, EU states must reinforce coordination and cooperation on the ground and at headquarters. AfPak envoys appointed by EU member states, including Britain, France, Germany and Sweden, should make a point of working more closely with Ettore Sequi, the EU's pointman for Afghanistan and Pakistan. On top of that, there must be consolidation of the three separate EU representations in Kabul, namely the European Commission delegation, EUPOL and Sequi's office.

Bringing Pakistan back from the brink will be difficult, especially since the EU so far fails to recognize Pakistan's strategic importance. Now, Pakistan is slowly climbing the European agenda, with the organization of the first-ever EU-Pakistan summit and plans to provide new trade concessions along with increased aid. To be effective regionally, EU assistance will have to focus on the two sides of the AfPak border and include both countries' Pashtun areas.

An EU priority must be helping Pakistan tackle the twin challenges of building functioning democracy and defeating religious extremism. This requires that the European Commission and individual governments keep channels of communication open with democratically elected Pakistani leaders, however weak they may be. Democracy in Pakistan is above all conditional on the army's retreat from political life. No encouragement can be given for the army to meddle in politics, as another military coup would not only undermine institutions but also undercut efforts to curb the insurgency and fight terrorism.

Trade and aid

There is much room for improvement in the EU's trade and aid ties with Pakistan. EU aid to Pakistan, frozen at 500 million euros since 1976, is a fraction of the $10 billion in U.S. aid Pakistan has received since 2001, and is easily dwarfed by new commitments made by the Obama administration. Europe's trade relations are also uneasy.

The EU is Pakistan's largest trading partner with EU imports, mainly of textiles and clothing, currently valued at about 3.5 billion euros a year. But a spate of EU investigations, and the removal of Pakistan from the EU's special duty-free scheme for developing countries, coupled with Brussels' reluctance to start negotiations on a free-trade agreement with Islamabad, have strained trade ties.

An overhaul of EU aid priorities in Pakistan would be welcome, away from the near-exclusive focus on health, education and rural development to a broader reform agenda, including police and judicial training, the modernization of political parties and strengthening parliamentary procedures. This would mean setting aside more funds for Pakistan, not easy given other demands on the EU's external budget.

The EU has a role to play in helping Pakistan's dynamic civil society groups. The focus should be on ensuring media independence and providing support for groups advocating human rights. EU encouragement in promoting Pakistan's long-standing Sufi traditions would also help counter the spread of the Taliban's cruel interpretation of Islam. The Pakistani government needs advice on crafting a new counter-terrorism strategy that combats extremism through development, not just military deployment.

A more targeted approach that is centered on winning hearts and minds should focus on bringing development to the arid and mountainous northern regions. Building schools and hospitals is a priority, but Pakistan must also invest in developing a better job-training program for the region's young men who often migrate to the Gulf States in search of work. More generally, Pakistan's friends must shift from backing individual political personalities to helping build strong institutions.

European governments must lose no time in doing their AfPak homework. This doesn't just mean putting Afghanistan and Pakistan higher on the agenda; EU countries should coordinate and where possible, consolidate their program, policies and delegations. It's not what national policymakers like to hear, but Europe's failure to do so will sour trans-Atlantic relations and put the brake on crucial steps for expanding the EU's global reach.

- The author is senior program executive at the European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think tank. A version of this article appears in the current edition of Europe's World, www.europesworld.org.

Shada Islam can be reached at
features@praguepost.com