Paroubek plots his comeback

By Jack Buehrer and Klára Jiřičná

STAFF WRITERS

Former prime minister and longtime Social Democratic Party (ČSSD) leader Jiří Paroubek has announced plans to form a new political party after becoming dissatisfied with the direction of the ČSSD.

Paroubek, prime minister from 2005 to 2006 and ČSSD chief from 2006 to 2010, has not divulged much about his future plans, only telling the Czech News Agency (ČTK) he's preparing an announcement this fall. But according to his blog on VašeVěc.cz, he believes the ČSSD has moved too far to the right, and he is interested in creating a more left-wing alternative to his current party.

"A new center-left party with principle and resolute politics will force the ČSSD not to become too rightist," he wrote.

Speaking to ČTK, however, he seemed to be issuing more of a threat than a promise, saying he would leave the ČSSD "if they keep going on in the same way."

After several phone calls to Paroubek's office, a spokeswoman said he would not speak to The Prague Post.

Paroubek stepped down as party chairman following the 2010 general election that saw the Social Democrats win a plurality but not a majority. Many feel Paroubek's aggressive leadership style left the party unable to form a coalition, eventually leading to the creation of the current center-right government coalition led by the Civic Democrats (ODS), ČSSD's chief rival.

Social Democrat leaders said Paroubek's dissatisfaction was news to them. Party Chairman Bohuslav Sobotka met Aug. 8 with his former boss to dissuade him from leaving, but details of the conversation were not made public.

Prior to the meeting, Sobotka said he was taken aback by Paroubek's criticism of the ČSSD.

"I want to ask him not to depart from the ČSSD and support its resistance toward unjust and wrong government reforms and support our effort to defeat the current right-wing coalition in the next election," he said. "There are no real program reasons for [him] to leave. The party shares and promotes the same values as it did when he was chairman."

The biggest problem with the ČSSD, in Paroubek's eyes, could simply be that they no longer have any real use for him.

"You have to assume he feels pretty disgraced within the party as a result of him stepping down and downgraded and no longer being used for any important functions," said political analyst Jiří Pehe, who heads the Center for Social Market Economy and Open Democracy, a left-leaning think-tank. "It's a real problem in Czech political parties; once a leader steps down, they no longer know what do with him."

Paroubek's somewhat vague announcement also came as a surprise to leaders of the Czech National Socialist Party (ČSNS 2005), which has been courting the former prime minister for months in hopes he would join their long-dormant party and become its chairman.

"We are still counting on him," said current party Chairman Karel Janko, who added that Paroubek had not told him of any plans to start a brand new party.

The ČSNS, founded in 1898, was a major player in Czech politics in the 1930s and was even led by Edvard Beneš before he was forced by the Nazis to abdicate as president in 1938. During communism, the party was a mainstay in the Czechoslovak government as a marginalized but tolerated opposition party, though true supporters of democracy were expelled. The ČSNS has languished as a minor party in recent years and has disbanded and reformed several times.

The party planner

Paroubek's announcement underscores a growing move toward populism on the Czech political scene. With voters growing frustrated with the right-leaning government, which has pushed a number of budget cuts while being unable to avoid corruption allegations and scandals, the mood among the public seems to be swinging back to the left.

A recent Factum Invenio poll of the general public showed the Social Democrats would win an election if one were held today. But it also showed the ODS, TOP 09 and VV have seen their popularity tumble while that of the Communist Party (KSČM) has actually pulled ahead of TOP 09 and is essentially on par with the ODS among voters.

Should Paroubek move to the left of the ČSSD, he could almost be assured of taking between 5 percent and 10 percent of the party's traditional voters with him, according to Pehe.

"If he manages to get into Parliament and the Social Democrats form a new government, it would be very difficult for them to do it without the support of Paroubek and his party," he said.

The writers can be reached at news@praguepost.com