News Analysis: In Parliament, a calm before the storm

Early August is a notoriously quiet time in Prague's government quarter with Parliament in recess and seemingly every notable political figure on holiday.

But insiders say they are not fooled by the silence coming from Government House as many are anticipating a flurry of messy battles that could, once again, throw the governing coalition into crisis when Parliament reconvenes Sept. 19.

The biggest, and most potentially fractious, issue on the agenda is the debate over the 2012 budget, which will include heated negotiations over across-the-board cuts that are likely to occur given the expected drop of nearly 40 billion Kč in government operating funds. Analysts say fierce debates over a proposed rise in the value-added tax (VAT), the financing of pension reform and a newly announced church restitution plan are all potential obstacles in reaching a consensus on the budget.

"This is very much the calm before the storm," said Stanislav Balík, head of the political science department at Masaryk University in Brno. "The budget dispute could easily be the end of the coalition government."

The senior ruling Civic Democrats (ODS), along with governing partners TOP 09 and Public Affairs (VV), are expected to submit later this month a draft proposal of the budget with a planned deficit of 105 billion Kč ($6.5 billion). The proposal is currently being written by Finance Minister Miroslav Kalousek (TOP 09).

In addition to the budget, Parliament is going to have two other major votes to consider upon return. A vote is expected in September on whether to lift chief VV financier Vít Bárta's immunity from prosecution after investigators told Parliament they had enough evidence to criminally charge him with bribing fellow VV MPs. The bribery scandal, in which Bárta was accused of giving hundreds of thousands of crowns to former party members Kristýna Kočí and Jaroslav Škárka in exchange for their loyalty, brought the government to a virtual standstill for three months during the spring. TOP 09 has already committed to having all of its MPs vote to allow the de facto leader of their coalition partner to be prosecuted. With only a simple majority needed to lift his immunity, insiders estimate 116 members of the Chamber of Deputies will vote to have Bárta prosecuted.

"The Bárta situation will be a major distraction during the last few months of the year," said Jiří Pehe, a political analyst and head of the left-leaning think-tank the Center for Social Market Economy and Open Democracy. "If the coalition somehow helps hand Bárta to the police and there's a messy trial, VV will consider that a breach of loyalty, and they could rock the boat on some of these other issues. They might also take it as a sign they're no longer wanted and another reason to just bring the whole thing down."

Balík said Bárta's role as VV's chief negotiator could complicate attempts by the coalition to find a middle ground on major issues if he's simultaneously on trial for corruption.

"I doubt he'll get convicted, but if there is a trial, it could badly damage his political position," he said. "If there are witnesses giving statements about how things really worked in VV, it could really harm the negotiation process, not to mention his case."

The other key vote expected before the end of the year is VV's proposed anti-corruption package, to which the party has staked its entire political future.

"VV claimed their main reason to stay in the government was to fight corruption, and now that package of reforms they were so proud of will go to Parliament," Pehe said. "What will happen to that package?  The ODS and TOP 09 don't really care about or want these measures. If they try to water it down or kill it completely, VV's response could be very interesting."

One key development that has already begun to take shape - and which could affect the autumn legislative session - is a precipitous shift to the left by VV. Still scarred by the previous government crisis that rendered them nearly powerless in the coalition, VV has left-leaning populist stances on several key issues included in the budget debate as their poll numbers - as well as those for their right-leaning governing partners - tumble.

"VV are fighting for their life, so you would expect them to use all kinds of weapons, including populism," said political analyst Bohumil Doležal.

Pehe said the populist tactic will likely be most evident in the budget talks.

"We'll hear, 'We can't agree with this budget because it places the burden on the middle class,' " he said. "They're not the most organized of parties, but I'm sure they know where the votes are."

- Filip Šenk contributed to this report.

Jack Buehrer can be reached at
jbuehrer@praguepost.com