No-confidence vote topples gov't

Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek's government, and by extension the legitimacy of the Czech EU presidency, collapsed March 24, jeopardizing the Czech Republic's international reputation and exacerbating pressing domestic issues.

The fifth no-confidence vote on the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), Christian Democratic Party (KDU-ČSL) and Green Party (SZ) coalition since it took power in January 2007 was the last. This was the first such vote during the EU presidency, and exposed talk of truce between Topolánek's ODS and the rival Social Democrats (ČSSD) for the duration of the presidency as fabrication.

"Political peace between the ODS and ČSSD during the Czech presidency failed to be sealed because it wasn't convenient for [ČSSD leader Jiří] Paroubek. It wasn't in line with his aggressive style of politics," said political analyst Bohumil Doležal.  

"It's a sad piece of evidence that no common interests exist between the opposition, one that would, for instance, impel the ČSSD to behave a bit more discreetly than usual for the duration of the EU presidency. The main goal, that all is subject to, is the overthrow of the government."

The final tally was 101-96 against the government, the exact number needed in the 200 member Chamber of Deputies. Votes from two ODS deputies and a pair of deputies ousted from the Green Party were decisive.

"Mr. Prime Minister, do not try to evoke the impression that chaos would rise after the fall of your government," Paroubek said during debate preceding the no-confidence vote. "It is your government that is chaos."

The presidency

The country's erratic political scene is sending ripples across the European radar.

"It's a slam in the very face of the European Union, and the end of the Czech presidency, politically speaking," said Piotr Maciej Kaczynski with the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based think tank.

The fall of the government creates myriad possibilities, but the most likely is that Topolánek will remain prime minister for at least the near term, albeit in a weakened state.

"Topolánek is the best person to represent the EU presidency," Kaczynski said.

Vladimíra Dvořáková, head of the political science department at the University of Economics in Prague, puts things more succinctly. "It is a very, very negative message to Europe," she said. "It weakens the European presidency of the Czech Republic."

New crisis

This latest crisis for the government was prompted by a Czech television report detailing an attempt by Topolánek to stifle another proposed television report about state subsidies granted to ČSSD-defector and ODS ally Petr Wolf.

This triggered outspoken condemnation of Topolánek by Paroubek on a variety of issues, followed by the demand for another no-confidence vote, all on the eve of the March 19-21 ČSSD party congress, which saw Paroubek reelected as party leader with 74 percent support.

Topolánek responded with vague accusations of his own that the ČSSD in collaboration with former state security officials sought to rig the March 2008 presidential elections.

President Václav Klaus, who won that election, then added more fuel to speculative fires by crossing party lines and speaking at the ČSSD party congress March 19.

The series of events leading up to the no-confidence vote points to Klaus' continued influence.

Two ODS deputies, Jan Schwippel and Vlastimil Tlustý, have remained loyal to Klaus and voted against a prime minister from their own party. Klaus now has the power to decide who would be the next prime minister.

"This strengthens Klaus," Dvořáková said. "I am afraid he has had this idea in his head all along."

Tlustý and his faction have threatened to bring down the government in the past. "He hates this government," Dvořáková said.

"Tlustý has a hard time getting over the fact that he was not nominated for a post in the government," Doležal said.

Up next

The Constitution spells out the conditions for calling early parliamentary elections, specifically when three-fifths of Parliament agrees elections are necessary. This would require compromise between several parties, which has proved elusive.

Further complicating matters is that none of the major parties enjoys significant support in public opinion polls, a demotivating factor for quickly pushing for new elections. At the same time, the major parties all seem to be splintering within, further dividing the electorate.

"Coalition governing that has undefined support in Parliament is very difficult and causes parties to break down," Doležal said.

Within the past few weeks, factions and new political parties have formed out of the coalition Civic Democrats, Greens and Christian Democrats.

The coalition Green Party recently expelled two deputies, Věra Jakubková and Olga Zubová, who turned the tide against the government.

"I wouldn't vote against the government out of revenge," said Zubová, now vice chairwoman of the new Democratic Green Party, before voting against the government. She condemned the government in a speech in Parliament March 24. It is rumored that Zubová and Jakubková presented Topolánek with a list of demands that would have delivered their votes. The Prime Minister rejected the demands, sealing his government's fate.

Most analysts say early elections are likely for the fall of 2009, though the next scheduled elections are not until June 2010.

Of the immediate future and potential for the Czech government to deal with domestic issues and the pressing international economic crisis, Dvořáková looked at the new state of affairs and said: "It is impossible to make reforms without legitimacy."

- Sarah Borufka and Nina Makelberge contributed to this report.

Benjamin Cunningham can be reached at
bcunningham@praguepost.com