Region: Ruling party dominates Hungary elections

BUDAPEST

The governing Fidesz party won a resounding nationwide victory Oct. 3 in municipal elections, taking 19 county assemblies and assembly majorities in 22 out of 23 cities.

The results conformed with pre-election opinion polls and follow in the wake of the national parliamentary elections held in April, where Fidesz gained an unprecedented two-thirds majority in Parliament, handing a strong rebuke to the previous Socialist (MSzP) government.

The far-right Jobbik party that received 16 percent of the vote in April's elections was much less successful this time around. However, the party's nationalist and anti-Roma rhetoric did earn it some support in the poor, rural northeast, which houses the highest concentration of Hungarian Roma.

"Jobbik is campaigning on security, order and rule of law," said political analyst Igor Breitner. "In one of the poorest regions of the EU, where public security is very low, this is a successful message." 

András Bozóki, a political scientist at Budapest's Central European University, considers the municipal election results a "continuation of the earlier parliamentary elections."

"Back then, there was a widespread disbelief and mistrust toward the previous Socialist government, that still remains," he said.

In the highest-profile race, István Tarlos of Fidesz comfortably beat MSzP's Csaba Horváth for Budapest mayor, winning 53 percent of the vote. It is the first time a Fidesz party member has held the post since Hungary reverted to democracy 20 years ago.

In a major blow to the MSzP, 19 out of 23 districts in the capital, a traditional left-wing stronghold, will be led by Fidesz mayors.

"Budapest is once again the capital of our nation," Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, of Fidesz, said Oct. 3.

Bozóki, however, says he does not anticipate any sweeping changes in the capital.

'The Budapest mayorship is especially important because the city has big resources, and the new mayor will redistribute these resources differently. ? The current mayor [Gábor Demszky of MSzP] promoted cultural diversity, but Fidesz will have different priorities."

Nonetheless, ruling the capital requires a certain liberal sensibility.

"I expect the new mayor to be a soft conservative, pragmatic like Rudy Giuliani in New York or Schwarzenegger in California. ? Any other approach would not work [in Budapest]," Bozóki said. 

Only 46 percent of the electorate voted in the municipal elections.

"Most people simply did not see the stakes," Bozóki said. "For them there was no alternative to Fidesz, and thus there was no point to go out and vote."

Orbán interpreted the low turnout as a sign that the majority of Hungarians were satisfied with the work of his government thus far.

"Everyone who went to the polls has given a mandate, and everyone who stayed at home gave permission to continue the work begun," Orbán said.

Fidesz now has an unprecedented mandate to govern Hungary at both the local and national level and will not face another election until 2014.

Since taking control of Parliament, Fidesz has been slow to introduce reforms in the economic realm and has stopped short of saying how exactly it hopes to balance the budget.

Pushing back the deadline for presenting the budget was a "politically rational move" by Fidesz in light of municipal elections, according to Bozóki, who said now that Fidesz has consolidated its power, budget cuts are forthcoming.

Investors will look to see if Fidesz implements structural reforms, which economists say are badly needed to keep strained public finances on a sustainable footing.

Last month, the government reversed itself and agreed to meet the International Monetary Fund and European Union deficit reduction targets.

With local elections out of the way, Fidesz will have to produce a credible budget for 2011 and has committed itself to reducing the spending shortfall to less than 3 percent of gross domestic product next year.

"We all know the difficult part is yet to come. It makes no sense to delude ourselves; it will be difficult," Orbán said. 

Ministers are due to present the 2011 budget in Cabinet in mid-October with a plan in the pipeline to introduce a 16 percent flat tax on personal income next year. 

Cillian O'Donoghue can be reached at
codonoghue@praguepost.com