Plan for ČR troop surge in Afghanistan

Troop levels in Afghanistan will likely be increased 30 percent next year according to a new Defense Ministry proposal, but analysts dispute whether this type of surge is worth the cost.

The government will discuss the proposal Oct. 6. It would increase Czech troop levels for NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) operations in Afghanistan from 535 to 720 in 2011, and then bring them back down to 640 in 2012, according to Vladimír Lukovský, a ministry spokesman.

Capacity for the troop increase, which is over the projected deployment of an additional 100 troops the government set in June, will be available after the complete withdrawal from the KFOR mission in Kosovo planned for the middle of 2011, Defense Minister Alexandr Vondra said on a visit to Priština Sept. 27.

Lukovský said the proposal will go on to be negotiated in both chambers of Parliament if approved by the Cabinet Oct. 6.

The boost would come on the heels of NATO requests in early September for 2,000 more troops for ISAF, but whether the 185 noncombat troops added to the existing Czech reconstruction and training teams will actually contribute significantly to the overall effort in Afghanistan was disputed by analysts who spoke with The Prague Post.

"Just adding a few here and there doesn't make a difference, so it's an unwise decision because of the cost," said Sven Biscop, director of the Security and Global Governance Program at the Royal Institute for International Relations in Brussels. "I don't see this operation generating any more durable effects, so in realpolitik terms, it might be cynical, but if we withdraw, will it be big problem for our security? Probably not. Do the benefits warrant the cost? Today, probably not anymore. ? Even if all allies were to add a small number of troops, in the end it will not make a significant difference."

However, other analysts echoed NATO sentiments, countering that any addition to troop levels will help the effort.

"We definitely need more forces throughout the country," said Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow specializing in defense and foreign policy issues at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. "The bottom line is that we still have 100,000 U.S. forces and only 42,000 Allied forces or so - the latter is not really enough, overall."

In March, The Prague Post reported that both NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and NATO Supreme Allied Commander for Europe Admiral James Stayridis visited Prague explicitly asking for a greater troop commitment, but the caretaker government of Jan Fischer was wary of making such a pledge before May's general election.

But whether sending noncombat troops does anything more than contribute warm bodies has been a source of contention. Last year, former NATO Secretary General George Robertson wrote in the Financial Times that only 2 percent of European troops were usable and deployable, and described European militaries as "pathetically ill-equipped for the world we foresee."

Others say soldiers exclusively focused on reconstruction and development projects are essential.

"You need people there to make a more secure environment," said Daniel Sherman, a spokesperson for the Royal United Services Institute in London. "That's probably one of the most under-resourced areas - that's incredibly important work, and it's critical to the success of making Afghanistan a stable state.

Cat Contiguglia can be reached at
ccontiguglia@praguepost.com