Election 2010: Officials unsure of electorate size

The Interior Ministry and the Czech Statistical Office (ČSÚ) admit they are unsure of the exact number of voters ahead of the May 28-29 general election.

"The municipalities have the information in the various districts, but the ministry does not know the number of registered voters for the election," ministry spokesman Vladimír Řepka told The Prague Post.

The ČSÚ also confirmed that it was in the dark as to how many voters nationally were eligible to vote.

"We know the media are interested in this figure, but we don't have it," said Pavel Kuklík, from the office's vote processing department.

Another official at the office, who requested anonymity said: "We do not know the exact number."

An official with Transparency International said that the lack of a centralized, readily accessible electoral register was "strange."

"However, there has been no history or evidence of election fraud, but the lack of a central register makes it more difficult for people to transfer their vote from one place to another," said Petr Jansa, head of legal advice at the watchdog group.  

The ČSÚ is using figures from the last election in 2006 to gauge the size of the electorate. According to these figures, about 8.4 million Czech citizens are eligible to cast their ballots, 400,000 more than in the first Czech parliamentary elections in 1996.

Polling stations open at 8 a.m. May 28 and close later that day at 10 p.m., before opening again May 29 at 8 a.m. and closing at 2 p.m.

As soon as the polls close, exit polls, predicting the possible outcome, will be issued by media organizations, but the first confirmed results are not expected until about 2 a.m. the morning of May 30.

The election brings to an end one of the most dramatic periods in recent Czech political history.

In March 2009, three months after the Czechs assumed the EU presidency, the government was toppled in a no-confidence vote. Since May 2009, a caretaker government, without a voter mandate, has been in office. It was unable to implement its full budget (maintaining rather than reducing perks for transport workers, for example) and on a number of occasions said it would not take measures that would have a long-lasting impact though this was conveniently ignored (the Prunéřov power plant expansion being the most notable).

If the general opinion poll trends are reflected in the election, it could result in a Social Democrat-led government with the tacit or full support of the Communists.

The electoral system leans toward some type of coalition. A one-party government is terra icognita for the Czech Republic. If the kingmaker role on the left goes to the Communists, then on the right, a Civic Democrat (ODS) led government could conceivably be sustained by two other right leaning parties, TOP 09 and Public Affairs.

But any coalition is likely to remain unstable with many hard decisions needing urgent action. The budget deficit tops the list. While no party says so publicly, a combination of spending cuts and higher taxes seems the only recipe for reducing the deficit.

Voters will choose their parliamentarians from a list of candidates, and, roughly speaking, the party percentage of the national vote is reflected in its number of deputies. The electoral system is a hybrid of majoritarian and proportional representation systems, but a party with 20 percent of the national vote would get roughly 40 deputies in the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies. Parties must past a threshold of 5 percent nationally to get seats in the chamber.   

Which coalition makeup would be more resilient and durable: a left-wing government with a fragile majority, or no majority with the silent but tacit support of the Communists? A right-wing coalition made up of numerous smaller parties taking the lead from the ODS?

It is time for voters to decide.

- Filip Šenk contributed to this report.

Tom Clifford can be reached at
tclifford@praguepost.com