News Analysis: Rasmussen's approach lacks firepower

The issue of extra Czech troops being sent to Afghanistan is not, in terms of military strategy, that important. Whether it is 55 or 51 or any at all will have no discernible impact on the overall Afghan theater of operations.

What is of great concern to NATO, and the reason why Secretary General Anders Fogh Rassmussen came to Prague, is simply that, if the Czechs are seen to be less than keen on increasing their troop levels, other allies will feel emboldened, and the alliance, already stretched, will be strained even further.

The Dutch government collapsed over a dispute about Afghanistan and announced it would start withdrawing some 2,000 troops in August. The pullout has spurred worries that other European countries could follow suit.

The 28 NATO countries are embroiled in an attempt to come up with a new strategic mission statement, and there are both trans-Atlantic and European divisions over the wording.

The White House recently accused Europe's leaders of endangering peace because of their growing pacifism and reluctance to foot the bill for adequate defense or willingly contribute more troops to Afghanistan.

In a blistering attack earlier this year on what Washington sees as European complacency in the face of new security threats, Robert Gates, the U.S. defense secretary, demanded wholesale reform of the trans-Atlantic alliance. He said it is becoming increasingly difficult for the United States and Europe "to operate and fight together."

"The Anglo-American strategy in Afghanistan has hit an absolute low mark," says Daniel Korski of the European Council on Foreign Relations. "If European countries are unwilling to send more troops, trainers and civilians to the Afghan mission, then the U.S. needs to do so itself."

Put simply, if the European members of NATO look as if they are indulging in cherry picking, the alliance is, if not dead, severely crippled. Afghanistan is not a popular war in Europe, and Rassmussen does not sell it well.

"We will be in Afghanistan for as long as it takes to educate them and train them to take responsibility," he said in Prague. As mission statements go, this was not exactly Churchillian.  

"The core mission of NATO is to defend its members' borders," Rasmussen said. "But those borders are far away, as in Afghanistan." It is a vague definition of expanding a war that has little support in European capitals, where the Taliban is not viewed as a serious security threat.  

At his Prague press conference, Rasmussen said, "In politics, nothing is certain." This brought on vigorous head-nodding in agreement from Prime Minister Jan Fischer.

The Russians, who have some experience in Afghanistan, are rubbing their hands with glee, as dividing NATO has been a keystone policy of the Kremlin.

The French plans to sell warships to Moscow have added to a sense of insecurity especially among East Europeans.

The sale of a French assault ship to the Russian Navy would be the first military deal by a NATO member state with Moscow, one that helps Russia's ailing fleet and one that may involve the sale of three more ships.

A deal for the French Mistral, a modern $750 million craft that carries helicopters and up to 900 commandos, has moved quicker than expected  at a time when European security policy on Russia remains in flux.

A Russian admiral has said the Mistral would have cut the 2008 war in Georgia "to 45 minutes."

"I take it for granted that Russia will not use or misuse such military equipment against any neighbor," Rasmussen said. "I take it for granted."

Fischer's head remained still.

Tom Clifford can be reached at
tclifford@praguepost.com