Region: The left plummets in pre-election polling

Germany's Social Democrats have plunged deeply in opinion polls, reflecting a number of gaffes committed by standard bearer Peter Steinbrück, who remains its candidate to challenge Chancellor Angela Merkel in the fall.

Merkel's rising popularity defies a political trend witnessed across Europe last year, when several incumbent governments, most of them right-wing, were unseated by opposition parties.

As recently as October, the left-wing SPD polled at 30 percent in Germany. A Jan. 9 public opinion survey published by independent pollster Forsa, however, rated the party at just 23 percent. Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, by contrast, continued its steady rise to 43 percent. But its liberal coalition parties are struggling to cross the 5 percent election threshold, so Merkel will likely have to govern with either the Social Democrats or the more leftist Greens.

The drop in popularity is in part caused by Steinbrück's controversial statements. In an interview published Dec. 30, he suggested chancellors in Germany are underpaid and Merkel enjoys an electoral advantage because she is a woman.

Speaking in Lower Saxony ahead of the Jan. 20 state elections there, the former finance minister said he regretted that he'd been "misunderstood," adding he never intended to argue for higher pay for politicians. "I was only comparing wages. The matter is closed," he said.

The incident may well be forgotten by the time Germans vote for a new Parliament this fall, but it's not just because Steinbrück's unfortunate remarks that caused his party's tumble in the polls. A vast majority of Germans - 71 percent, according to a recent survey - approves of Merkel's job performance and sees little reason to change horses midstream.

Steinmeier, a former foreign minister and currently the Social Democrats' leader in Parliament, told Der Spiegel last week that no matter the outcome of Lower Saxony's election, where many left-wing voters are opting for the smaller Green Party instead, Steinbrück will represent the SPD in this year's federal vote. The ruling coalition of conservative and liberal parties has no solutions for the demographic, energy and infrastructure challenges of the future, he added. "This government profits from the decisions made in the middle of the last decade," when the Christian and Social democrats were in government together, he said. "They only reap what the other has sown."

Such a "grand coalition" may be likely after the next election and would enjoy comfortable majorities in both chambers of Parliament. Meanwhile, Merkel's present coalition has to rely on opposition support in the Senate. A grand coalition would give her a strong mandate to enact comprehensive economic and social reforms.

For the Social Democrats, however, joining the government as junior partners seems less attractive than it did just a few months ago, when they approached Merkel's popularity in the polls. If recent numbers bear out and the SPD gets half of the conservatives' seats, they would be in a weaker position to make demands on entitlement and fiscal policy. Merkel has the alternative of governing with the Greens, who are eager to prove their independence from the Social Democrats and may be more willing to support labor market reforms. The SPD traditionally enjoys the support of the nation's trade unions, which are wary of further liberalization. Green voters tend to be younger, urban and, crucially, better paid.

The German Social Democrats' inability to sway voters is remarkable in the European context. In the past two years, virtually all incumbent governments were voted out in national elections, owing to popular dissatisfaction with austerity measures imposed - many on the left in those countries argued - on Germany's insistence. The most recent example was France, where conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy, an ally of Merkel's in the European sovereign debt crisis, was replaced by Socialist Party leader François Hollande, who expressly campaigned against spending cuts.

In Germany, it is Merkel's very insistence on fiscal consolidation in Europe that endears her to many voters. German support for the euro, even European Union membership, has steadily decreased since the beginning of the crisis as the country bore the brunt of rescuing weaker economies on the periphery of the currency union. The Germans are willing to pay to save the single currency, but up to a point. They see in Merkel the steadfast leader who successfully balances the European interest against the German. Why vote for the less experienced candidate when she is willing to serve four more years?

Nick Ottens can be reached at
news@praguepost.com