Battle for presidency heats up

When Miloš Zeman declared to the media that his presidential runoff against Karel Schwarzenberg was a choice "between a candidate from the left and one from the right," it set the tone for a critical final period of campaigning ahead of the Jan. 25-26 vote to determine who will succeed outgoing President Václav Klaus.

Although the two men promised not to engage in the mudslinging that often plays out in such scenarios, there have been sharp attacks from both sides. Zeman has sought to blame Schwarzenberg, the foreign affairs minister, for the conservative government's unpopular tax hikes and pension reform, as well as accusing him of blurring his responsibility for a controversial prison amnesty declared by Klaus at the start of the year.

Meanwhile, Schwarzenberg, who has publicly criticized the amnesty, continues to point to Zeman's role in the unsavory 1998 opposition agreement, when the 68-year-old became prime minister in a deal that saw his Social Democrats (ČSSD) rule in a minority government. Klaus' Civic Democratic Party supported the move in return for a portion of influence and jobs in state-run institutions.

Addressing reporters at a press conference in Olomouc Jan. 20, the TOP 09 candidate again highlighted the somewhat contradictory relationship between Zeman and Klaus, saying they had deceived voters by forming "one power group that has stuck together for years." Schwarzenberg added the pair shared a common goal of wanting control over the people. Vladimíra Dvořáková, a professor of political science at the University of Economics in Prague, agrees with that assertion.

"Zeman would try to be as strong a president as possible, concentrating on building his own position of power," she said. "In some sense, he would carry on with the Klaus way of governance and also accommodate some important personalities from the Klaus era. Zeman is very pragmatic and can change his position very easily."

Despite being effectively endorsed by the right-leaning Klaus, the Party of Civic Rights - Zemanovci (SPOZ) founder presents himself as a man of the people. Media commentators view him as a skilled orator who embraces the grind of modern party politics. In contrast, according to Dvořáková, the 75-year-old Schwarzenberg wouldn't be as willing to dirty his hands in such matters. Instead, he would probably be more active in foreign policy, she said.

That view is echoed by analyst Bohumil Doležal, who added, "Schwarzenberg would be a more experienced president [than Zeman] and would be shaped by tradition. He wouldn't get involved in political squabbles aimed at one particular party, mainly because he wouldn't have the opportunity to do so."

Having left the ČSSD in 2007 following a long-running leadership dispute, Zeman is expected by many observers to make life difficult for both his old party and the current government should he win the election. Indeed, during a debate with Schwarzenberg on Czech Radio's daily program Radiožurnál Jan. 16, the former prime minister admitted he would regularly attend Cabinet meetings and would attempt to influence important legislation.

But Zeman has stopped short of advocating a similar approach to that of Klaus, whose criticisms have frequently undermined the ruling coalition. Looking more relaxed than his rival in their first televised duel one day later, Zeman told host Václav Moravec he "wouldn't use the term 'destabilize' " to describe possible run-ins with Prime Minister Petr Nečas' government, even though he disagreed with its recent measures.

"I think Zeman is more likely to trouble current and future [if Social Democratic] governments," Dvořáková said. "In this second instance, he would try to stir up internal conflicts and divide the party. He would also somehow support the possibility of a comeback by Klaus."

Schwarzenberg, for his part, has indicated he wouldn't participate in Cabinet meetings every week but underlined the importance of a coordinated foreign policy. "It gives a bad impression if [the president and government] contradict each other abroad," he said on Radiožurnál. Unlike Zeman, the minister has also expressed his desire to be a nonpartisan head of state.

Common policies

However, this doesn't mean there aren't similarities between the two. For one, they have agreed on the need to make changes to Parliament. Zeman would like to increase the authority of the Senate, Parliament's upper house, while Schwarzenberg wants a first-past-the-post system, like that used in the United Kingdom, for electing MPs to the Chamber of Deputies.

Perhaps most strikingly, though, whoever assumes office at Prague Castle will extend an olive branch to the European Union. That is sure to raise a smile in Brussels, where the fiercely Euroskeptic Klaus has long drawn the ire of EU leaders for his vociferous opposition to the 27-member bloc - notably in 2009, when he stalled on signing the Lisbon Treaty, which hands EU institutions more power.

Breaking with Klaus' stance, both candidates have pledged to strengthen European ties, with Schwarzenberg saying the Czech Republic is "in the heart of Europe, so we shouldn't be an island." The two men, who are both for a European federation, said they were also in favor of the country joining a banking union, but only when conditions were right to adopt the single currency.

Zeman added Europe should have common foreign and security policies, although he warned against giving full control to Brussels. "I support the EU integration process, but I'm against a unitary super-state, because I believe only national governments and parliaments should decide on some matters," he said.

When asked who would be a better statesman abroad, Doležal said the Continent's politicians would welcome Schwarzenberg over Zeman owing to the minister's current role and agenda. Not mincing his words, the analyst fears Zeman would be a "catastrophe" on the international stage, in a nod to comments the then-retiree made about Islam in 2011, for which he was later sued.

"The enemy is the anti-civilization spreading from North Africa to Indonesia," Zeman told a conference on European values. "Two billion people live in it, and it is financed partly from oil sales and partly from drug sales." He went on to liken Muslims who believe in the Koran to Nazi supremacists.

While Zeman and Schwarzenberg have the same goal for Europe, their views on the rest of the world differ significantly. The former would focus more on growing links with Moscow (SPOZ is accused of having nefarious connections to several Russian businesses), while the latter would align himself more with the United States, having shown concern over the resurgent influence of President Vladimir Putin's Russia.

"Both candidates won't officially be against the EU, although Zeman would be more critical of some EU decisions," Dvořáková said in summary. "Schwarzenberg is oriented more toward the United States, mainly dealing with the Middle East and pro-Israeli politics. Zeman would collaborate more with Russia but not in every international conflict, for example, in Iran due to his anti-Islam position."

With regard to the Czech economy, the pair would be able to offer little more than token guidance, since the president's powers are limited in this area. Although they clash on the need for austerity measures, Zeman and Schwarzenberg have both signaled their intention to appoint experts with varying economic theories to the governing board of the Czech National Bank (ČNB), one of the head of state's main direct responsibilities.

"Judging from the statements the two candidates have made so far, it seems they prefer to continue the tradition of using experts on the ČNB board," said David Marek, chief economist at Patria Finance. "This means there's no risk the direction of monetary policy will change significantly."

Meanwhile, as the runoff draws closer, the attacks have turned increasingly venomous. Zeman poured scorn on his rival for calling the postwar Beneš Decrees a "gross violation of human rights" during their debate Jan. 17 (see Postview, page E1). His campaign has also targeted Schwarzenberg's relationship with TOP 09 Finance Minister Miroslav Kalousek, with billboards urging voters to "Keep Kalousek from the castle."

Many analysts have been surprised by the elder man's apparent refusal to fight like with like, wondering why he hasn't done more to shed light on some of the shady privatization deals during Zeman's tenure as prime minister. The siphoning of assets from coal mining company MUS was touched upon in the TV debate, but Schwarzenberg failed to rise to the bait. Instead, he has preferred to focus his attention on the regions where he fared less well in the first round.

Schwarzenberg can boast the backing of some 20 prominent public figures (including the likes of sociologist Ivan Gabal and musician Michael Kocáb) who launched an appeal in his name Jan. 21, while Zeman has been boosted by endorsements from the ČMKOS trade union organization and eliminated candidate Jan Fischer.

That could tip the scales in the leftist's favor, especially after Fischer said he couldn't support a man who compared former Czechoslovak President Edvard Beneš to a war criminal. A poll published by research group PPM Factum Jan. 18 put Zeman on 53.7 percent support to Schwarzenberg's 46.3 percent. However, it said half of voters were still undecided.

Jonathan Crane can be reached at
jcrane@praguepost.com