Region: Russia tense ahead of election

Even as Russia's burgeoning opposition poises for yet another anti-government rally Feb. 4, exactly one month ahead of the presidential election, Kremlin watchers predict the nascent movement will do little to redraw the country's political landscape.

Some 100,000 people are expected to attend demonstrations throughout the country to protest against an allegedly rigged 2011 parliamentary election, as well as the presidential candidacy of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who has remained in the country's highest political posts for some 13 years. The rally follows a series of successful protests in December that drew tens of thousands to the streets of Russian cities.

"It used to be unusual to see students or the petty bourgeoisie out on the street. These are completely different people," said Oleg Panfilov, a prominent Russian author and civic-freedom activist. "If they continue to increase in numbers, maybe the protests will become a way to realize a true civil society, which was destroyed by Putin."

Even as the newly emergent opposition ratchets up grassroots support ahead of the March 4 presidential election, in which Putin is widely expected to secure his third victory to date, regional observers remain skeptical these efforts will yield any real concessions.

"Putin is well familiar with the historic dogma of 'to stop a movement, become its leader,' and it has always been his strategy for dealing with internal affairs," opposition leader Alexander Navalny commented in Russian daily Moskovskii Komsomolets just days after more than 50,000 people demonstrated in Moscow Dec. 25, in the largest protest to date.

By implementing cosmetic changes to the system ahead of the election, the Kremlin is looking for ways to weaken the opposition movement while neutralizing its leaders, analysts say. Despite the extraordinary show of civic initiative, Russia watchers thus remain wary of the movement's ability to provoke any far-reaching change in the country's semi-authoritarian status quo.

"At first, the Kremlin was visibly startled by the turnout, but now, they will be ready," said Petr Kratochvíl, director of the Institute of International Relations in Prague. "They will not hesitate to suppress the demonstrations, and the election will end as it usually does, with a victory for Putin."

There is, however, a possibility that increased international attention will prevent the Kremlin from claiming an outright victory in the first round of the election, as has been the case since Putin first came to power in 1999. Instead, Putin might beat his opponents in a runoff during the second round, thus pre-empting international criticism, Kratochvíl said.

Since the beginning of the protests, President Dmitry Medvedev has promised to implement structural changes to Russia's ruling system, pledging to target corruption and reinstitute gubernatorial elections, which Putin abolished in 2004 in a bid to centralize power. Other proposed reforms include easing the rules for political party registration and liberalization of state-controlled media.

Despite this apparent show of goodwill, the Kremlin is unlikely to implement these measures, as they pose a significant threat to the current political order.

Decentralizing gubernatorial power would lead to a loss of regional clout for Putin's ruling United Russia party, Kratochvíl said. Giving more freedom to state media and implementing anti-corruption measures would collapse the system through which the Kremlin maintains its hold on power.

"While it may seem like the government is discussing point-by-point reforms, what is really at stake is the entire structure," he said.

Although the emergence of a physical opposition is likely to continue to challenge the Kremlin, the main obstacles Russia will face in 2012 will be economic in nature.

A majority of the opposition movement are members of an angry middle class that has felt the pinch of economic turmoil. With former Finance Minister Alexey Kudrin, whose policies helped pad the effects of the global recession under Medvedev's administration, now out of office after falling out of favor with Putin, it will be interesting to see how Russia copes with its economic challenges in the coming year, Kratochvíl said.

"It is an oft-repeated fact that Russia is heavily reliant on nonrenewable resources, both for import and export," he added. "This is not changing, and neither are Russia's socioeconomic problems."

The protests have led investors to shy away from the markets - a consequence particularly hurtful in Russia, where growth is closely tied to financial confidence and the increasingly volatile price of oil. Ongoing political tensions have caused capital outflow to rise to $84.2 billion by the end of 2011, compared with $33.6 billion in 2010. The ruble, meanwhile, has fallen 1.3 percent against the U.S. dollar, according to Jan. 1 figures.

In a nation where mass protests have a poor historical record of success, such projections do not bode well for the democratic movement, Panfilov said. "Putin's will to stay in power will be accompanied by imperialist policies, even while the Russian economy gets worse and worse."

- Gil Kazimirov contributed to this report.

Markéta Hulpachová can be reached at
mhulpachova@praguepost.com