News Analysis: Presidency is a bargaining chip

Since Foreign Affairs Minister Karel Schwarzenberg (TOP 09) became the first candidate to receive his party's backing in a run for president, rumors have swirled that a deal is already in the works between TOP 09 and the opposition Social Democrats (ČSSD) that would put Schwarzenberg in the castle in 2013 and help collapse the current center-right government, leading to new elections.

The deal would involve TOP 09 - a junior-ruling coalition partner with the Civic Democrats (ODS) and Public Affairs (VV) parties - agreeing to pull out of the coalition, leading to early elections, in exchange for the ČSSD's support for Schwarzenberg's presidency.

Analysts and insiders are split on where the rumors originated, and most agree such a deal is unlikely, but that doesn't mean the presidential post won't become a political bargaining chip in the months to come.

"They will talk, but they won't make a deal like that right now," said one MP with knowledge of the inner workings of both parties. "It's too early to give up so much. The Social Democrats can support its own candidate and just wait for the [current] government to collapse."

Political analyst and author Jiří Pehe wrote an op-ed Oct. 25 in the daily Právo making a case for the deal, claiming such an agreement makes sense for both sides. Pehe told The Prague Post that for TOP 09, Schwarzenberg's presidency represents little more than a pipe dream if direct elections are not instituted by 2013, which now seems unlikely. For the ČSSD, the desire for early elections has become more urgent with the recent departure of former Prime Minister Jiří Paroubek, who left the party in October to form his own left-wing party and, if given enough time before the next parliamentary elections, could siphon votes from the Social Democrats.

"Both sides would get what they want," said Pehe, who heads the left-leaning think-tank the Center for Social Market Economy and Open Democracy. "Schwarzenberg would need ČSSD support to win the presidency, and the Social Democrats would get their new elections. Paying this price is tempting for the ČSSD, because it would give Paroubek almost no time to get his new party off the ground."

Schwarzenberg had been mulling a presidential run long before his official announcement at TOP 09's annual party congress Oct. 19. Originally, he said he would not run unless Parliament approved an amendment to the election process, which currently calls for a vote among members of Parliament and in an atmosphere that in the past produced myriad backroom dealings. Schwarzenberg now says he will run no matter the election format.

TOP 09 and ČSSD officials did not respond to requests for comment from The Prague Post.

Using the presidency as an interparty bargaining chip is not uncommon, Pehe said, the chief reason most lawmakers openly advocate direct presidential elections with no real intention of ever changing the system.

"They say they want direct elections but come up with reasons it won't work," Pehe said. "Really they know it is to their advantage to elect the president themselves, because it is an important bargaining chip."

One potential source of the ČSSD-TOP 09 rumor may have been the senior-ruling Civic Democrats (ODS), said Milan Znoj, a political scientist at Charles University. As the two parties battle to be the country's leading conservative party, painting TOP 09 as a party willing cooperate with the left-of-center Social Democrats could give the ODS an upper hand.

"I wouldn't be surprised if someone from the ODS would start a rumor like this, because it has already created another argument against TOP 09 and Schwarzenberg," Znoj said. "Real negotiations for this agreement have not taken place. The ČSSD has the motivation to make a deal with a coalition party to break up the government as soon as possible, but doing that to help Schwarzenberg is pretty wild speculation."

Both Znoj and Pehe said that while such a deal is unlikely, the two parties actually have enough common ground to make a coalition work, mainly in that they're both pro-European, which would be a seismic shift from the current ODS-led government, which is largely Euroskeptic.

"That would be enough to build on, but the problem is that Czech politicians don't think strategically," Pehe said. "In the end, it will be the typical Czech goulash: no compromise candidate, every party will produce their own candidate, they will fight during the elections, and everyone will be looking for some kind of deal. It will probably just be business as usual."

- Filip Šenk contributed to this report.

Jack Buehrer can be reached at
jbuehrer@praguepost.com