Organized far-right party could emerge

Growing economic uncertainty and dissatisfaction with established political parties has been a boon for extreme-right parties throughout Europe, but the trend has thus far bypassed the Czech Republic.

Experts are split on exactly why, with some saying it is only a matter of time and others saying the relatively low rates of immigration deprive far-right groups of a key unifying issue: xenophobia.

But with President Václav Klaus remaining as vocal as ever on domestic and international issues there is also renewed speculation that Klaus could seek a return to electoral politics after his presidential term expires in 2013 and serve as the charismatic leader capable of drawing together such voters to create if not a far-right party, a la the National Front in France, then some semi-mainstream arch-conservative group.

"There is a political space there, and I am surprised it hasn't happened yet," said political analyst Jiří Pehe, on the possibility of a popular far-right party emerging.

"It would require a very charismatic leader, someone less crazy than some of the types playing with this idea now, someone like [deceased politician Jörg] Haider in Austria who doesn't come across as dangerous at first. Klaus could play this role, but I don't think he will."

In a recent interview with the daily Hospodářské noviny, Foreign Affairs Minister Karel Schwarzenberg noted that "many European countries" have seen the rise of an extreme right-wing party.

"It is true there isn't a political power of such a type in the Czech Republic, but only because there is no charismatic leader," he added.  

Asked if Klaus could turn into that figure, Schwarzenberg replied, "You said that, not me."

Comments by a key Klaus aide on the eve of a recent gay pride event in Prague and the continued employment of the ultra-conservative Ladislav Bátora in the Education Ministry and Roman Joch as an adviser to Prime Minister Petr Nečas has led some to point to the growing tolerance of hard-right views in the top corridors of power. More starkly, July's terrorist attacks in Norway have refocused attention to the bubbling cauldron of European right-wing anger.

"The chance for a nationalist right-wing party with a neo-liberal program is here, and the number of like-minded voters is growing," said Milan Znoj, a political scientist at Charles University.

While far-right political groups have launched protests in north Bohemia in recent days, it is instead the large numbers of seemingly mainstream citizens that have also taken to the streets that creates the greatest fear an organized mass political movement could emerge.

Jean-Yves Camus, an expert on far-right political movements at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris, said that opposition to "globalization, immigration and bad economic conditions" are the driving forces behind the rise of extreme right-wing political groups.

A lack of mass immigration in the Czech Republic, especially from non-Western cultures, is perhaps the biggest roadblock to getting far-right voters with potentially disparate interests to coalesce around a single political party, he said.    

"Among experts, the Czech Republic is seen as the ultimate example of where a far-right party cannot emerge," Camus said. "Now, if you are talking about a semi-mainstream party, halfway between the [Civic Democrats] and the extreme right, probably this can happen."

Far-right groups have entered parliaments in Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, France, Hungary, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and elsewhere. In all Central European countries except the Czech Republic, they have also found electoral success.

"Czech nationalism is different from Polish and Hungarian nationalism," Znoj said. "But the room for such a party is being created, and Klaus will want to take advantage of this chance."

Much like the Czech Republic, neither Hungary nor Slovakia is a major destination for immigrants. Still, each of those countries comes with their own features that have allowed the extreme right to make gains. In Hungary, the Roma minority - which accounts for up to 10 percent of the population as opposed to well below 3 percent in the Czech Republic - proves a convenient scapegoat in lieu of immigrants for far-right groups. Slovakia saw Ján Slota's Slovak National Party as part of its previous coalition government.

"Slota is not really a man of charisma, but in Slovakia, there is a long tradition of nationalism," Camus said.

Even if a far-right party remains unable to gain majority support, it often succeeds in pulling the entire political spectrum to the right.

"The [National Front in France] has been doing this, in one form or another, for 25 years: pulling both right-wing and left-wing mainstream parties to the right on the key issues of immigration and law and order," said James G. Shields, director of French studies at Aston University in Birmingham, England.   

"This failed to weaken National Front support and merely gave it increased legitimacy until the arrival of Sarkozy in 2007. Sarkozy campaigned on the themes of law and order, authority, national identity, immigration control, promising to set up a Ministry of Immigration and National Identity - and his victory was due to attracting much of [former National Front Leader Jean-Marie] Le Pen's support."

In the Czech Republic, two key factors seemingly remain absent in the far-right's traditional formula. The first is absolutely essential.  

"If you have no charismatic leader that emerges, an extreme right party has no chance," Camus said.

There remains skepticism about if Klaus, who will be 72 when his presidential term ends in 2013, has the desire to be that figure.

"Klaus would have to be totally mad," said Pehe, the author of the book Klaus: A Portrait of a Politician in 20 Acts. "You can say what you want about Klaus, but he is not stupid. After what he has achieved, I just don't see what he would get from that. Anything after the presidency is a step down."

The second - unifying voters against immigration - appears important, but not insurmountable.

"General unhappiness can be absorbed by the mainstream opposition parties," Pehe said.

"I am not entirely sure that general unhappiness is a good enough reason to copy Le Pen in France, for example."

- Filip Šenk contributed to this report.

Benjamin Cunningham can be reached at
bcunningham@praguepost.com