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No-vote creates election 'fiasco'
Analysts react to the first three rounds and look ahead to more
February 13th, 2008 issue
By Dominik JůnFor The PostIf there is one point on which politicians and the general public can agree regarding the 2008 Czech presidential race, it would surely be this: What transpired between Friday, Feb. 8 and Saturday, Feb. 9, was no way to elect a president. It began promisingly. On Friday morning, the country’s 281 deputies and senators assembled in the resplendent Spanish Hall at Prague Castle with a single aim: the election of a new head of state. The proceedings began with both candidates — President Václav Klaus and challenger Jan Švejnar — giving speeches outlining why they should be voted into office by Parliament. But it wasn’t long before events started on a downhill slide, with words like “farce” and “fiasco” being bandied around with alarming frequency. The end result: On Saturday afternoon, the public learned that the entire election process had collapsed. Neither candidate had won and the elections would have to be run all over again. One of the first signs of the rough road ahead came early Friday when Green Party leader Martin Bursík delivered a scathing attack not just of incumbent Klaus but also the entire Czech political elite to the assembled dignitaries. “We are sitting here in front of the public somewhat muddied by backstage horse-trading, poorly concealed meetings with lobbyists and intrigue,” noted Bursík, adding that the entire process was permeated by a climate of fear. Soon after, rumors began circulating that Civic Democratic leader and Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek was so furious at Bursík’s remarks that the Green Party was headed toward expulsion from the coalition government. Interior Minister Ivan Langer was caught on camera unleashing a tirade of abuse at his coalition partner.In terms of the fallout from Bursík’s comments alone, political analyst Bohumíl Doležal believes they have damaged relations with the Civic Democratic Party. “Everyone knew the Greens would support Švejnar — that’s to be expected, but he should have said that this support was still very much part of a strong desire to remain in the governing coalition.” He added, “It will be very, very difficult for Topolánek to dismiss the Greens from the coalition, but, on the other hand, there will be tremendous pressure for him to do something.” The director of the Institute of Political Studies at Charles University, Bořivoj Hnízdo, disagrees. “It depends on the results,” he argued. “If Klaus is elected, I think it will be forgotten, but if he is not, then the further continuation of this government is in question.” Regarding the bigger picture, Hnízdo added, “At the moment, it is actually the Christian Democratic Party that seems key to Klaus’ victory, while even all Social Democratic, Communist and Green votes will not be enough to secure a victory for Švejnar.”Moving forwardIndeed, all eyes now remain on the Christian Democrats and the Communists. In last Friday’s election, Klaus was short of victory in the third round by a single vote. Thus, the two “missing” pro-Klaus Christian Democratic MPs, Karel Barták and Josef Kalbáč, who abstained from Saturday’s third round, will be crucial. Another key question surrounds recent moves by the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia to introduce an alternative left-of-center third candidate, as Švejnar’s pro-radar stance continues to present a “problem.” The party has now announced a list of five suitable candidates that it would support: ombudsman Otakar Motejl, former Foreign Affairs Minister Jiří Dienstsbier, the head of the constitutional court Pavel Rychtecký, Euro MP Jana Bobošíková (the only candidate likely to accept being nominated) and the head of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Václav Pačes. The Social Democrats have indicated that it is simply too late in the day to throw their support behind another candidate. Doležal, for one, maintains the Communist tactic is flawed. “If there is another candidate, meaning three candidates in total, it can only work for Klaus,” he said. “So it seems quite unlikely that another candidate will be nominated.” Indeed, rumors suggest that the Communist Party is in a state of internal disarray, with the old guard insisting on an alternative and modernizers favoring support of the official anti-Klaus candidate, Švejnar. So will the Communist Party remain a crucial factor in this election as it was back in 2003, when its support for Klaus proved decisive? Doležal says that, in fact, the KSČM could damage Klaus’ opponent far more: “So long as Klaus tries very hard, he can win the elections without the help of the Communists. The pro-Švejnar coalition can only win if they accept that they’ll need Communist votes to do it. The Communists will always be capable of blocking the election of Švejnar.”Arguably, far more damaging than the Communist influence is the public perception of the way this presidential vote has been conducted. Talk of backroom deals has now given way to accusations of intimidation, blackmail and anonymous threats by political operatives. Political commentator and publisher of the online journal Fleet Sheet Erik Best says this election — carried out live on TV — has been pivotal in shaping the public’s view of their own democratic system. “I think they are even more thoroughly disgusted than they were during past elections,” he said. “Unless [officials] figure out a way to have an election that everybody is happy with, there are still going to be doubts about the end result.”Yet Hnízdo says the hype surrounding this election has been somewhat overstated. “The message to the public I think is also a bit misleading because there were two days of this on TV and now the people have got this feeling that this post is really the most important in the Czech political system and actually that’s not true.” Yet, Hnízdo acknowledged that this election had been conducted in a slipshod manner. “This election simply demonstrated that political parties, especially the strongest ones, use this occasion as an arena for conflict, and I think that it’s a great pity.”Two things remain clear: Klaus is still the firm favorite, and the entire charade, complete with squabbles about how to conduct the vote, endless stalling and yet more intrigue, will likely be repeated Friday, Feb. 15. Czech politicians are in for a very long and unpleasant week. Dominik Jůn can be reached at news@praguepost.com
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