The Prague Post Online: News: Decision time

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Decision time

Incumbent, challenger vie for votes

February 6th, 2008 issue

By Dominik Jůn

For the Post

Illustration by CAROLINE WREN and KURT VINION

Václav Klaus and Jan Švejnar go head to head Feb. 8. enlarge

As the presidential race heads toward the finish line Feb. 8, the outcome seems far less certain than it did even a few weeks ago.

What once seemed like a rubber-stamp process to re-elect current President Václav Klaus has morphed into a far more even match.

Klaus’ only official opponent is Jan Švejnar. The U.S.-based economist has seen his popularity and his name recognition rise, as both men try to convince members of Parliament to support their respective candidacies.

Klaus has several factors in his favor: He is the incumbent, he enjoys the support of the governing Civic Democrats (of which he is an honorary chairman), and he remains a rock-solid icon of the Czech political scene.

Yet, according to political analyst Jiří Pehe, Klaus’ re-election would not bode well. Just for starters, he would likely push for a new prime minister.

“Klaus in his second term would no longer feel his hands were tied. He would try to play for history, and one could expect a more aggressive opposition to the European Union and the euro as well as some housekeeping within his Civic Democratic Party,” Pehe said.

Social Democrats and Green Party members have strongly opposed Klaus for months. But, until recently, it appeared they would not be able to agree on an alternative candidate at all, leaving Klaus to run unopposed.

Late last year, it appeared that former dissident Jiří Dientsbier might be the candidate of choice. Former President Václav Havel (who has now formally endorsed Švejnar) was also mentioned as a possible candidate. But both ultimately declined.

Švejnar became a candidate Dec. 14 — relatively late in the process. He faced an immediate problem; opinion polls suggested most Czechs don’t even know who he is.

And what of the “problem” of his residing in Michigan and his U.S. citizenship?

Was the local political scene so decimated that potential leaders had to be shipped in from overseas?

In fact, Švejnar’s résumé is unquestionably impressive — and includes being an adviser to Havel, a director of the International Policy Center at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, a founder of the Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education (CERGE-) at Prague’s Charles University, a former chairman of the supervisory board of ČSOB and the author of countless books and articles.

He is essentially running on a pro-European, pro-euro platform, in contrast to “Euroskeptic” Klaus, although his support for a proposed U.S. radar base is actually stronger than that of his opponent.

“Švejnar undoubtedly represents someone looking to the future, while Klaus embodies the past. It all depends on whether the MPs decide on a continuation of the status quo or decide upon change,” Pehe said.

Political analyst Bohumil Doležal disagrees, saying Klaus would be the lesser of two evils because a Švejnar election would give the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia too much power.

“Klaus would give Topolánek’s government more opportunity to open up to the center. If Švejnar became president, he would become president only thanks to the votes of the communists,” Doležal said.

To other observers, however, Klaus’ oft-alleged demagogy and ideological filtering of reality seems to be an easy cocktail to defeat. His pronouncements on global warming, environmentalism, civic organizations, dissidents and many other subjects, have, according to critics, harmed the Czech Republic’s image across the globe as well as Klaus’ own Civic Democratic Party.

Despite Klaus’ controversial viewpoints, which often fly in the face of official government policy, he remains popular with the public as a “defender” and “protector” of Czech interests. He appeals to citizens long threatened by external forces such as Germany and the Soviet Union — and today “threatened” by the EU and environmentalists.

Even Klaus’ critics are forced to concede that he is a brilliant and savvy politician.

Since the Velvet Revolution, Klaus has barely spent a day outside of the heart of the national political structure. He served as finance minister from 1989 to 1992, founding the Civic Democratic Party in 1991. He served as prime minister from 1992 to 1997, chairman of the Chamber of Deputies from 1998 to 2002 and finally president from 2003.

Compared with Švejnar, who often slurs his way through speeches, Klaus comes across as a confident and self-assured speaker.

Indeed, Klaus’ self-assuredness remains both his greatest weakness and his greatest strength. Those hoping the president might mollify his controversial viewpoints on man-made climate change, or soften up his allegedly arrogant style in the hope of a broader electoral appeal, need only have listened to his recent press conference following an official meeting with the Green Party Jan. 28.

“I did not back off from my views on global warming and climate change,” he told Green Party leader Martin Bursík. “In fact, I am surprised you have not changed your mind. I hoped that by now you would have seen through this fiction and realized that you bet on the wrong horse.”

Klaus, like U.S. President George W. Bush, maintains that in 30 years or so historians will finally admit he was right and the conventional wisdom was wrong on global warming.

Meanwhile, opinion polls show that Švejnar’s popularity has risen.

A January STEM research poll showed that 52 percent of Czechs would choose Švejnar in a direct election — undoubtedly a blow for Klaus, who has enjoyed the wide-scale support of the populace for years.

Nonetheless, this election will not be decided by the people, but by Parliament. The math remains firmly in Klaus’ favor, particularly with the Civic Democrats’ overall control of the Senate.

Perhaps crucially, the communists have recently indicated their inclination to support Švejnar (on condition that he renounces his U.S. citizenship upon taking office), yet Klaus will still require only 19 “stray” MPs to secure a victory, in addition to all 122 Civic Democratic members.

Yet Pehe remains suspicious of communist motives.

“Communist leader Vojtěch Filip has himself confirmed that the communists want to hinder Klaus and force him into a second and even third round of voting, leaving the chamber in the third round, meaning no one would win, before insisting on a more ideologically suited candidate,” added Pehe. “It’s all about machinations.”

Doležal agreed, but his warnings are even direr: that electing Švejnar could cause the government to fall.

Officially, the Christian Democrats also remain undecided. Suspicions remain that they will ultimately support Klaus in exchange for his supporting the re-admission of their controversial and embattled leader Jiří Čunek back into the Cabinet.

Perhaps the greatest irony is that this election is being fought between two economists. In supporting Švejnar, the Social Democrats have underscored that this election is essentially between Klaus and any candidate able to defeat him.

Švejnar’s credentials as an economist clearly encroach on Klaus’ territory far more than if he was opposed by a dissident figure like Dienstbier.

If Švejnar succeeds in defeating Klaus, his candidacy would have proved a master stroke by the Social Democrats. If Klaus is re-elected, his opponents will undoubtedly scratch their heads and wonder if a better, more inspiring candidate could have been found.

Ultimately, this election will hinge on a number of factors: Will all Christian Democrats support Klaus? Will some Civic Democrats stray toward Švejnar? Will any Social Democrats support Klaus? Despite some recent and decidedly murky attempts to change the process, the ballot is likely to be a secret one, so supporters of either candidate need not fear retribution for breaking with their party’s official line.

Nonetheless, as with so much of Czech politics, the final outcome will likely be decided by the usual order of business: machinations, back-room deals and intrigue.

Dominik Jůn can be reached at news@praguepost.com

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