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U.S. official makes case for radar

In wake of Obering's visit, some politicians remain unconvinced

By Kimberly Ashton
Staff Writer, The Prague Post
January 23rd, 2008 issue

KURT VINION/THE PRAGUE POST
Gen. Henry Obering III spent Jan. 16 and 17 discussing the "urgent need" for a U.S. radar base.
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After two days of robustly selling the radar program in Prague, the head of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency still faces opposition to plans for planting the shield on Czech soil.
Gen. Henry Obering III spent Jan. 16 and 17 meeting with politicians, businessmen, diplomats and the press. His aims were to dispel what he says are myths that the shield doesn’t work, to court Czech contractors and to emphasize what he says is the urgent need to extend the shield over Europe.
“I believe that the day is coming for Europe with respect to threats from Iran specifically,” he said to reporters Jan. 17.
After his visit, the Social Democratic Party (ČSSD) and the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM) remained unconvinced of the system’s necessity. “If the radar is established, we will be targets. Security will be less than it was before,” Hassan Charfo of the KSČM told The Prague Post. He added that the government is “trying to find any reason to avoid a vote by the people.”  
The Communists, along with the Social Democrats, support a referendum on the issue, while Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek’s Civic Democrats oppose a popular vote.
Jan Hamáček, an MP for the ČSSD, said his party “didn’t hear anything that would make us change our minds,” during the general’s visit. “Obering didn’t tell us anything we didn’t know.”
What the Social Democrats would like to see is a discussion within NATO about the nature of the threat and the best way to address it, he said. They were glad to see more talk of NATO involvement but still doubt that such a “huge, unproven and expensive” system is the answer, Hamáček said.
While he conceded he is aware of the Iranian missile program, he doesn’t think that the threat from Iran is imminent.
Worst-case scenarios
Aware of such continuing doubts, Obering repeatedly punctuated his plug for the radar with ominous scenarios of what might happen were it not built.
“What happens if we’re right and the Russians are wrong? If Iran is antagonistic or missiles get into nonstate hands?” Obering asked at the end of a roundtable discussion with journalists Jan. 16.
During a question-and-answer period with the media the following day, Obering evoked the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks when responding to the lack of popular support for the radar: “If you’d asked the American people on Sept. 10, 2001, if there was a significant threat of terrorism to the homeland of the United States, probably the poll answer would have been ‘no.’ ”
Obering stressed his belief in the need to build the shield soon. Iran now has the capability of launching a missile 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) and within the next several years could double that range, reaching most European capitals, he said. U.S. intelligence estimates Iran could be capable of launching a missile that reaches North America by 2015.
“Now is the time to act to make sure that we extend [shield] coverage to our European allies … before it becomes too late,” he said.
Regarding the recent U.S. National Intelligence Estimate report that states Iran has suspended its nuclear weaponization program, Obering said little comfort can be derived from that finding.
The assessment “did not say that Iran had terminated its program, or had dismantled its program, or had in any way, shape or form prevented the resumption of a nuclear-weapons program,” Obering said. “While they apparently have suspended activity in weaponization, they have accelerated activity in the delivery-vehicle program, i.e., the missiles.”
He said he sees Iran taking a similar path as North Korea in terms of weapons development. “It’s not unexpected because we know there is collaboration between the North Koreans and Iran. And we’ve seen a very active development program and test program in Iran over these past several years,” Obering said. “Especially this last year was one of their most active.”
Another belief Obering set out to dispel is the idea that the radar doesn’t work. Missile expert and former government official Philip Coyle has criticized the program and was in Prague the same time as Obering. Obering called Coyle “outdated” and said 36 of 42 tests done since 2001 in realistic conditions have been successful. There has been “not even a hiccup since February ’05,” he said of the absence of any recent glitches.
Topolánek and Obering told reporters in a joint address that the missile shield would work in tandem with NATO missile defenses and had been specifically designed to do so.
The United States has been in discussion with NATO since 2004 about its desire to build a shield against long-range ballistic missiles. Furthermore, Obering said, the U.S. announced this intention to Russia long before asking the Czech Republic and Poland to host the shield.
The initial plans to expand the shield, which now primarily covers the United States, were developed in 2002. “Even going back that far, we had intentions of having this be a fully NATO-integrated program,” Obering said.
Over the next several months, the United States intends to demonstrate that the two systems are compatible and have complementary architecture by orchestrating data exchange between them. The NATO system now covers short- and midrange ballistic threats.
Obering said he would like to see an agreement signed and construction on the radar started by the end of the year.
— Hela Balínová contributed to this report.

Kimberly Ashton can be reached at kashton@praguepost.com


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