The Prague Post Online: News: Experts watch Russian elections

August 30th, 2008

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Experts watch Russian elections

Analysts gauge local impact of Kremlin's political shift

By Markéta Hulpachová
Staff Writer, The Prague Post
December 12th, 2007 issue

Following the United Russia party’s landslide victory in the country’s Dec. 2 parliamentary elections, and the party’s subsequent Dec. 10 nomination of its choice for President Vladimir Putin’s successor, Czech leaders and political experts continue their Kremlin watch, concerned by practices they increasingly see as a return to authoritarian rule.

Following the consensus of the European Union, the Czech Foreign Affairs Ministry condemned United Russia’s election techniques in a Dec. 2 statement, voicing concern over the mushrooming political power of President Vladimir Putin, who is himself a United Russia member.

“As expected, the post-electoral developments in Russia will fall under the influence of political forces that represent the interests of the current Kremlin administration,” the statement says. “We continue to monitor and evaluate the election process meticulously.”

This commentary is the latest in a series of ongoing criticisms toward Putin’s government voiced by the Foreign Affairs Ministry in recent months.

At the height of United Russia’s pre-election campaigning in November, the ministry announced its “deep concern” over Russia’s treatment of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), a watchdog group that monitors international elections.

Upon receiving a formal invitation from Moscow, OSCE attempted to dispatch a 70-member team of experts to Russia, but was prevented from entering the country because the Russian government refused to grant them visas.

“Unprecedented restrictions, hold-ups and artificial obstacles placed in the way of the watchdog mission made it impossible for [the OSCE] to utilize Russia’s invitation,” says Interior Ministry spokeswoman Zuzana Opletalová. “The future composition of the Russian parliament will always dwell in the shadows of doubt over the circumstances that led to its creation.”

By using his executive powers to influence public opinion through media manipulation and the blocking out of opposition, some local experts say Putin’s administration may be returning Russia’s political system to its authoritarian roots.

“The elections followed a traditionally eastern standard,” says Vladimír Prorok, vice dean at the University College of International and Public Relations in Prague. “They were a far cry from following democratic principles as we understand them.”

Regardless of its techniques, however, United Russia’s sweeping victory was inevitable, adds Karel Svoboda, a Russian Federation expert from the Association for International Affairs (AMO), a local international relations think tank. “After the chaos of the 1990s, Putin has restored order and given the people stability,” he says. “The price to pay for this is a limitation of personal rights, but most Russians don’t even register this.”

By ousting the opposition from the political scene, United Russia is transforming the government into a single party hegemony that is reminiscent of the Chinese political system, Prorok says. “Democracy in the Western sense cannot exist in Russia, because the country completely lacks democratic tradition,” he adds.

As for Putin’s potential predecessors — the list of which as of Monday includes United Russia Party-backed first deputy prime minister Dmitry Medvedev — Prorok adds the public sentiment that Putin’s influence will hold great power.

“If Putin gets behind the new president, it will give that candidate and his party authority, because Putin has authority,” he says.

However, despite its straying from democratic ideals, the fortification of Russia’s government may actually be a positive development. “Under [former President Boris] Yeltsin, the democracy that existed in Russia bordered with anarchy,” Prorok says. “We all know that Russia has nuclear weapons. For this reason alone, a unified, stable Russia is better than utter mayhem.”

In the aftermath of the instability of the Yeltsin era, most Russians respond negatively to pro-Western politicians who criticize Putin’s undemocratic practices. “The word ‘democracy’ itself is profaned in Russia,” says Svoboda. “Its meaning has become connotative of anarchy.”

Increasing pressure

For the EU, Russia’s rebirth as a world power may be a decisive factor in its foreign and economic policy. “Russia is no longer backing down, and it’s forcing other world powers to make compromises,” Prorok says.

As a member state, the Czech Republic is obligated to follow the EU consensus. “We are members of a certain bloc,” Prorok says. “As part of the EU, we will have to reach some sort of an accord with Russia.”

According to Svoboda, the EU’s interest in Russia’s energy reserves is likely to placate its criticism of the country’s domestic policy.

“When the EU meets with Russia, the talks focus on energy,” Svoboda says. “I may be cynical, but, from my point of view, human rights concerns end where economic interests begin.”

As the EU struggles to consolidate its trade politics into a single-market economy, Russia — a key player on the world energy market — is taking advantage of the disunity by making bilateral trade agreements with individual member states.

“From a Russian point of view, it’s better to do business with 27 countries than one single unit,” Svoboda says. “For Russia, the worse possible thing that could happen is that those countries will reach an agreement, because it increases the pressure.”

With economic ties that date to the heyday of the Soviet Union, the Czech Republic itself has a deep-seated interest in maintaining good relations with Moscow.

“Aside from [the 1968 Soviet invasion], the Czech Republic has well-established links to the east,” Prorok says. “We may wag the finger at [its government’s practices], but it’s in our own best interests to be on good terms with Russia.”

Markéta Hulpachová can be reached at mhulpachova@praguepost.com

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