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The role of a radar base on Czech soil

Mechanics of the system are simple, but location is key to its effectiveness in Europe

By Kimberly Ashton
Staff Writer, The Prague Post
June 6th, 2007 issue

Graphic courtesy of U.S. Embassy in Prague

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Amid all the talk of the proposed missile shield the United States wants to station on Czech and Polish soil, there have been few words about how this system actually works and what exactly a radar base would do.

The shield would operate on a straightforward principle: The radar tracks an incoming warhead and launches a hit-to-kill missile that destroys the weapon before it has a chance to land in Europe or the United States.

But the mechanics of the system are complex, sophisticated and still somewhat unproved. Below is an explanation of the shield’s nuts and bolts.

Boost phase

Missile launches require so much energy that they are easy to spot. A space-based satellite using infrared technology can detect a launch based on the large amount of extremely hot exhaust it emits, according to Rick Lehner, spokesman for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. This technology is nothing new; it’s been in use since the 1960s.

After a missile launch, the satellite then transmits the information to early warning radars in Europe, based in the United Kingdom and in Greenland. These ground-based, wide-beam radars are able to track the missile after it breaks the horizon, or is in what defense experts call the boost phase. This phase, during which the missile is fighting Earth’s gravity, lasts between one and five minutes, depending on the range of the missile.

The early warning radar signals alert U.S. Strategic Command in the state of Colorado of the launch. The command center monitors the launch, controls whether to launch interceptor missiles and develops firing and intercept strategies.

Meanwhile, the early warning radars have cued the X-Band Radar, a device with a very narrow beam that is able to isolate and identify small objects in space. It is the X-Band Radar that the United States wants to locate in the Czech Republic. These same kinds of radars are used in many airports, including Prague Ruzyně, and would only be activated after a missile launch, according to Lehner.

Midcourse phase

After the attacking warhead leaves the atmosphere, it enters what is known as the midcourse phase, which can last as long as 20 minutes.

It is here, in space, that a ground-based midcourse-defense system encounters the incoming missile.

If Strategic Command issues an order to launch an interceptor missile, one of the 10 missiles based in Poland would be fired. This missile has two rocket motors and can adjust its trajectory after launch to intercept the attacking warhead.

A nonexplosive projectile, or “kill vehicle,” would separate from the intercepting missile and continue to adjust its path, using onboard computers and rockets, to reach the target.

At the point of impact, the intercepting kill vehicle will be traveling around 15,000 to 18,000 miles (24,140–28,968 kilometers) per hour, Lehner said. It destroys the warhead by the sheer force of impact, not with chemical or nuclear material.

In the event of a missile interception, debris would not fall on Europe, Lehner said. The intercept would take place 100 to 200 miles above Earth and involve such force that “there’s really nothing left but dust.” Anything large enough to enter the Earth’s atmosphere is incinerated upon re-entry, he said. So far, in tests, debris has not been an issue. In one test, all material was eviscerated except an 8-inch (20.3-centimeter) chunk of debris, which was likely caught in Earth’s orbit, Lehner said.

“There’s really been nothing that’s fallen back to Earth that we know of,” he said.

Another possible flaw, critics say, is that decoys can be used to confuse missile defenses. But Lehner said the system is designed to detect decoys and zero in on the active warhead.

Terminal phase

If the midcourse-defense system fails, the attacking warhead enters what is known as the terminal phase and re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere. This phase lasts less than a minute. The United States now has other missile systems — the Aegis sea-based system and the Patriot ground-based mobile system — that could be used to intercept a falling missile in the terminal phase. There is no Aegis system in Europe at the moment, Lehner said.

So why does the midcourse system need to be in Central Europe?

“Geometry is everything, and the way you get geometry is by geography,” Lehner said. The Czech Republic and Poland are ideally suited to cover the maximum area in Europe from warheads launched from Iran, he said. But some places, by dint of their own geography, would remain uncovered in the event of an attack from Iran. Bulgaria, Romania, Greece and Turkey are too close to Iran to be protected by long-range ballistic-missile defenses, which are designed to cover targets beyond 3,000 kilometers of the launch site. In this case, southeast Europe is too close to Iran to be covered.

NATO

This is where a potential NATO system would come into play. Right now, NATO does not have its own missile-defense system, Lehner said. But a short- and midrange system, primarily designed to protect NATO troops, is in the works. Tim Williams, head of the European Security Programme of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in the United Kingdom, said that the NATO system would act as an umbrella for NATO troops stationed abroad. And it could be expanded to complement a U.S. shield.

Victoria Nuland, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, said she envisions an interconnected system, one that would be “bolted together.”

The U.S. system against long-range missiles would also be used to protect NATO allies.

“Putting the NATO label on the U.S. system helps a lot of governments here,” Williams said.

The United States is not looking at any other European sites now, Lehner said.

If all goes as planned, the two systems will be fully deployed by 2011.

Effectiveness

Despite the highly refined theory of missile defense, the reality is a different story. Of nine intercept tests conducted with midcourse missiles, only five have been successful. Even those, critics argue, were performed under tightly controlled circumstances that don’t reflect what would happen in actual combat.

“It’s sort of like hitting a hole-in-one when the hole is going 15,000 mph,” said Philip Coyle, a senior adviser for the Center for Defense Information. “It is actually the most difficult thing the Pentagon has ever tried to do.”

Lehner said he doesn’t understand the criticism that the tests have been too scripted. “When designing a system, you have to have tests scripted to measure performance and match it against design,” he said, adding that the testing procedure is the same for all other military hardware.

Kimberly Ashton can be reached at kashton@praguepost.com

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