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Making their play

Local politicos tune up and tune in for Bush visit
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May 30th, 2007 issue

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By Alexandr Mitrofanov

Though there are many competing topics in the local media, the pending visit of U.S. President George W. Bush to Prague is going to become a major focus of the country’s political discourse. For the first time since the 1989 revolution, the U.S. president’s presence in the capital will not be only connected with the formal duties of both the guest and the host — just declaring they are allies.

Bush will ask the establishment for serious support. The U.S. radar base near Prague is a crucial point in the plans of the Bush administration, which seems oblivious to the mainly negative public opinion here.

However, the burden of calming more than 60 percent of respondents who raised their voices against the base in different polls is up to the government. The Americans have only reasons to be satisfied with Mirek Topolánek’s crew, especially concerning the prime minister himself as well as his deputy, Alexandr Vondra, who formally coordinates European issues in the government but in fact is the Czech official most loyal to U.S. interests.

Given the firm position of both of the top government members, it is almost impossible to imagine the administration will express even a hint of hesitation as to how to meet the U.S. requirements. It would be hard to find a person here who doubts the reaction of Topolánek’s Cabinet in that respect. The government will say yes to the radar base.

It looks like an absolute priority for the main ruling coalition party, the Civic Democrats (ODS), led by Topolánek. Within the government, only the Greens try to play the part of enfant terrible, speaking with different voices than that of their leader and the deputy prime minister, Martin Bursík. He has given tacit support for the base, despite the open protest of the west Bohemian regional branch of the Greens. But any base votes missing from the Green Party could be replaced by some from the Social Democrats (ČSSD).

The stance of the main opposition party, the ČSSD, toward the radar issue is marked by the general duality of its position within society. The party has its core roots in the poor social groups who have suffered from the transition from real socialism to capitalism and therefore press the ČSSD against the wall, requesting harsh attacks on the ODS. At the same time, ČSSD members are a good distance from any real opposition to the current political system as well as to the United States. For both of these roles, there is a different party doing the job very actively: the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia.

But Bush’s Prague schedule will not include any meeting with the communists. The U.S. president will probably not hear a word of hesitation, to say nothing of open doubts or protest. On a bilateral, official level, he will get the expected result. However, the public holds a different point of view. The minority of radar-base supporters will be happy that this good thing is in progress. The majority opposed to the radar base, however, will probably focus on observing Czech politicians alongside Bush. These people will be eager for the most embarrassing moments of local politicians’ stressed loyalty.

Topolánek has already created the pattern of his behavior toward domestic and foreign authorities. He’s seen as a guy who is everything but polite to his counterparts. At home, he, along with others, has undergone many tough and sometimes unfair clashes with his main rival, Jiří Paroubek of the ČSSD. Topolánek did not hesitate to express his reservations to President Václav Klaus, who is honorary president of the ODS, during the eight-month process of forming the government last year.

Back then, Topolánek grimaced and sighed while Klaus spoke at a mutual press conference.

In recent days, the prime minister was quite unfriendly to his Italian counterpart, Romano Prodi, who sought Czech support for the idea of changing the procedures of the European constitution. Topolánek’s reputation as a straight shooter also depends upon his permanent quarrels with other politicians and journalists.

It would be at the very least unnatural if he suddenly became an ever-smiling good guy whose only desire is to be useful to his U.S. friends. Topolánek probably doesn’t care about the effects such a picture could create within the pro-U.S. ODS and its electorate. But his situation as prime minister is far from stable. The radar issue is not the only controversial point in Topolánek’s relationship with at least half of society — the half who did not want his victory in last year’s election. He has also escalated controversy with his Cabinet’s proposals for tax and finance reforms — opposed by the ČSSD and the communists as well as by some members of the ODS.

In any case, Paroubek, the opposition leader, has announced that he will meet with Bush, too. For Paroubek, that could present a moment even more difficult than that of his rival, Topolánek. Paroubek must have in his mind that, for at least part of his voters, George W. Bush symbolizes the forces of hell.

On the other hand, Paroubek has declared his will to remain the head of the ČSSD for the next six or seven years. In his plans, that means a comeback to the prime minister post. For this reason, it would be rather harmful for him to be too distanced from the United States as the main partner for the future, despite the radar issue.

Fortunately for Paroubek, he declared from the beginning that he personally would not mind locating the U.S. base on home soil. Later, he simply added that a majority of the party members have a different opinion.

The only figure on the political scene who has been trying to negotiate, not only with the United States but also with Russia, is Klaus. No matter that he failed to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin that the radar base will not threaten his country. The good PR of Klaus’ recent visit to Russia, as well as his contacts with the Americans over this topic, is probably more important to him than the actual results of his efforts. By positioning himself as the only serious politician in the country, he is focusing on the presidential election next year in which he is so far candidate No. 1.

Klaus, then, may become the only top politician who is able to truly make a good opportunity out of Bush’s visit.

— The writer is a commentator for Právo. This piece was written for The Prague Post.

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