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Going gray

Outdated immigration laws and the EU's lowest birthrate will cause an extreme shortage of workers, experts say

By Markéta Hulpachová
Staff Writer, The Prague Post
May 16th, 2007 issue

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The hairs of the populace are graying. In 40 years, the Czech Republic will resemble a geriatric institution.
That’s the fear of experts and politicians who met May 9 to discuss the socioeconomic problems of the Czech Republic’s rapidly aging population.
“These demographic changes will affect all aspects of society,” said Vladimír Špidla, European commissioner for employment, social affairs and equal opportunities, who spoke at the conference. “Europe is turning into a retirement home.”
Shackled with the lowest birthrate in the European Union, restrictive immigration laws and an outflow of workers to the West, the Czech Republic could see a deficit of 1.5 million employees by 2050 — equivalent to a third of its current staff and the worst projected shortage of any EU member state.
That’s according to a study released earlier this year by the Dutch research company SEO. The firm expects similar problems in other EU countries including Luxembourg, Italy, Poland and Hungary, though none worse than the Czech Republic.
The only way European countries will be able to counterbalance their employment deficit is by reforming their immigration policies, the report said: “It seems unlikely that Europe can build a viable future without immigration. The declining population will create tensions on the labor market, and the aging population will need labor-intensive services that are difficult to obtain elsewhere.”
And, in order to attract workers, the Czech Republic needs to implement immigration laws that facilitate the flow of foreign labor into the country. Experts say the current immigration policy is rigid and ineffective.
“We want to take in more workers, but the system lacks a sophisticated mechanism that would accommodate our demand,” said Dušan Drbohlav, a sociologist at Charles University.
The current foreign employment policy requires non-EU nationals to obtain a one-year work visa through their employer within 90 days of entering the country, which Drbohlav cites as one of the policy’s biggest downfalls.
“Before immigrating, an educated individual who wants to work in the Czech Republic has to find an employer,” Drbohlav said. “He is then bound to this single employer. It’s demanding and extremely inflexible.”
The government says it is working to resolve these complications.
“We aim to liberalize legal immigration and harden our policy on illegal immigration,” Labor and Social Affairs Minister Petr Nečas said.
Last month, Nečas and Industry and Trade Minister Martin Říman announced their plans to simplify immigration policy by allowing immigrants who meet certain criteria to obtain a “green card.” The new policy would match a visa applicant’s skills to the country’s current labor demand. Under the new system, applicants whose skills are in high demand would be eligible for a renewable two-year green card, replacing the current work visa, which is only valid for one year.
In the long term, Nečas said, the government intends to deal with the projected staffing deficit by developing policies that would facilitate the integration of foreign immigrants into society.
“Even today, a whole range of industries could not function without immigrant labor,” Nečas said.
Nearly half of the 300,000 immigrants currently employed in the Czech Republic come from Slovakia and Ukraine. Ideally, these immigrants will help staff manufacturing industries, which will lack about 400,000 employees by 2050, according to SEO.
Growing old
While both experts and politicians agree that effective immigration policy is essential for the economy’s future, it is one of many reforms needed to resolve the demographic problem. By 2050, the number of people over the age of 65 is expected to more than double, making up 30 percent of the total population.
To cope with these changes, experts say the government needs to implement extensive socioeconomic reforms. While healthcare and pension plans require immediate reform, it is crucial to focus on programs that will boost the long-term problem of dropping fertility rates, Špidla said.
Low birthrates are the main factor behind the country’s aging demographic. With a 2004 average of 1.23 children per woman, the Czech Republic has the lowest birthrate in all of Europe. Rates have been dropping dramatically since 1990, when demographers first recorded what’s called a “lowest low” fertility rate, or below 1.3 children per woman.
Demographers attribute this decrease to a fundamental change in lifestyle and family values that followed the 1989 regime change.
“The changes of 1989 led to lifestyle diversification,” said Jitka Rychtaříková, a demographer at Charles University. “Parents are finding it increasingly difficult to balance parenthood with their careers.”
The current social climate is causing educated Czech women to postpone parenthood and limit their number of children, Rychtaříková said. Yet, unlike other developed countries experiencing this trend, the decrease of Czech women who give birth in their early 20s is not matched by an increase of children born to women older than 28, creating an unprecedented situation.
Rychtaříková warns that families with small children are being marginalized. In order to promote fertility, the government needs to alleviate the social and financial burden placed on families.
“The state should establish institutions supportive of the fusion of parenting and career,” she said.

Markéta Hulpachová can be reached at mhulpachova@praguepost.com


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