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On the edge

How Jiří Paroubek manages to hang on
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April 4th, 2007 issue

By Alexandr Mitrofanov

Imagine a man trying to look slim and, for that reason eating bananas, oranges and other healthy but meatless products that guarantee the eater will appear a modern politician, without redundant fat.

The same person, at the same time, is turning all 871 pages of his 4-kilogram (8.8-pound) photo-illustrated large-format biography.

A healthy and modern orange, the color of which even corresponds with the official logo of his party, is in his right hand and a panegyric caressed by his left.

The controversial man’s name is Jiří Paroubek. He was prime minister of the Czech Republic from April 2005 to August 2006. Now he is leader of the opposition Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD).

Less than two weeks ago, he was re-elected party chairman at the ČSSD congress. He was sure he would win more than 80 percent of the votes, but he got only 60 percent. Nonetheless, his position seems stable for the time being. He had no challenger at the congress and cannot now be confronted with such a person for two more years, unless he commits a crime and is made to resign.

Paroubek likes to be seen as a political champion. He often boasts how successful he has been since his appearance at the top of Czech political life in April 2005. He portrays himself as key to the ČSSD’s revival, something desperately needed before he was appointed prime minister and simultaneously became informal head of the party. Paroubek is comfortable with the argument that it was he who was the party’s savior.

In truth, he led the ČSSD from a disastrous point, at which it had only about 10 percent of voters’ support in April 2005, which was legacy of his predecessors, to a 32 percent result in last year’s June election for the Chamber of Deputies in Parliament.

Paroubek’s drive and harsh-mannered political style won back lots of former supporters of social democracy who had missed this kind of behavior, which they admired in former Party Chairman and Prime Minister Miloš Zeman.

It was no surprise that Jiří Paroubek was elected chairman for his first time with 91 percent of the votes. That was last May at an extraordinary party congress. The ČSSD needed to show its unity just a couple of weeks before the election, on the one hand. On the other, members were really impressed by the popularity Paroubek had reached in such a short period of time.

Unfortunately for them, this was not enough to win the election. The ČSSD came in second to its biggest rival, the right-of-center Civic Democrats (ODS), led by Mirek Topolánek, the current prime minister. Although negotiations about a new government lasted eight months and a new Cabinet was able to be formed only with the help of two deserters from the ČSSD, the result was, ultimately, rather sad for Paroubek’s party colleagues, who had become accustomed to influential positions over the past eight years, during which they ruled the country.

Under these circumstances, Paroubek began to prepare his new victory at the upcoming party congress. He chose the modernization of social democracy as his future brand.

The result he reached at the March congress was, however, more than 30 percent worse than his previous 91 percent support showing. Paroubek was visibly disappointed. Twenty-four hours after his re-election, it even looked like he would resign because delegates of the congress chose Paroubek’s biggest critic, Martin Starec, the head of the party control commission. It also appears that another critic of the chairman, Petr Hulinský, could be elected vice chairman. And this after Paroubek had threatened the delegates the day before that if they did this he would resign.

At the end of the day, the delegates decided they would not find anyone else to run for the chairmanship for now and let Paroubek remain in the position. However, his reputation within the party was undermined, even if there is no current danger for him as regards re-election.

Paroubek himself tried to look for the reasons for this qualified win in several areas. First, he spoke of the possible influence of Miloš Zeman’s demonstrative abandonment of the party three days before the congress. The ex-chair undoubtedly planned his step as revenge on Paroubek, who was neither respectful nor obedient to the former ČSSD star. But the dozens of informal dialogoues with the delegates of the congress I reviewed showed that Zeman’s effect was minor in the criticisms of Paroubek.

The surviving chairman also emphasized resistance to his idea of modernization among many of the ČSSD representatives, especially outside of Prague. According to Paroubek, this was the second reason for his only 60 percent score.

Probably he was right. Some of the changes Paroubek proposed for party rules would indeed threaten the cartel-like organized regional structures of the ČSSD. Because of this, Paroubek’s proposal to have regional party bosses elected directly by all local party members was killed at the congress. Delegates only approved a new rule for a direct vote for chairman of the party as a whole.

But even this obstacle fails to explain of the party’s hesitation about Paroubek as the proper chairman of the future. Not every delegate was a member of a regional cartel and would profit by rejecting Paroubek’s proposals. The crux of the reluctance to him was in something else — something Jiří Paroubek himself seems unable to see.

He has aggravated plenty of members with his huge ego, visible in every word and step. Paroubek probably has no doubt he is the real champion, not only within the party, and he has been demonstrating this stance since he was appointed prime minister.

This approach worked during the first stage, when he needed to inspire the party and its supporters. Nowadays Paroubek is a mere leader of the opposition — it sometimes seems he does not understand. For example, his recent visit to the site where the U.S. radar base is expected to be installed had all the features of a state visit. There was just one exception, but an important one: Paroubek and his ČSSD are no more a part of the government.

The chairman of the ČSSD created, with his own hands, at least three traps for his own political future. The first was his egoism, which he is not willing to reduce to an acceptable level. The second obstacle lies in the new rule of direct vote for party chairman by all the members. In combination with the third trap, Paroubek’s poor compatibility with his slogan of modernization, it creates the prospect that this politician is unstable.

Even the absence of a recent challenger to him does not mean the party cannot generate such a person if it comes to the conclusion that Paroubek will no longer guarantee future success. The first figure on the list is Paroubek’s first vice chairman: former Finance Minister Bohuslav Sobotka.

The author is a commentator for Právo. This piece was written for The Prague Post.

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