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No government mandate likely for rest of '06

ČSSD-ODS deadlock reaches its sixth month; early elections possible

By Jeffrey White
Staff Writer, The Prague Post
December 6th, 2006 issue

The year is likely to end without an official government in the Czech Republic, analysts say.

Deadlock in Parliament has reached its sixth month, despite some hopes that the strong performance of the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) in late October's local and Senate elections would usher in a month of productive negotiations, with the party leaning on its momentum to force a resolution.

That didn't happen.

Instead, both the ODS and its chief rival, the left-wing Social Democrats (ČSSD), seemed to have dug even deeper lines in the sand.

"I don't see any progress or will to change the situation," political analyst Zdeněk Zbořil said. "The parties just behave the same way."

The latest round of negotiations ended Dec. 1 without significant progress. Prime Minister and ODS Chairman Mirek Topolánek floated the possibility of a three-party coalition made up of the ODS, Christian Democrats and Greens with the ČSSD in opposition.

But the ČSSD balked, largely because the proposed coalition did not appear any different than an earlier coalition between the same parties that fizzled out not long after a general election in June delivered a lower house of Parliament divided evenly between the right and the left.

One of the chief obstacles in front of any proposed coalition since then has been finding a palatable platform that can command broad support. Topolánek's latest plan made room for the ČSSD as the party in opposition, but stipulated that the party would still have to support the government.

That's not likely to happen, as long as the ODS makes issues like a flat tax, tuition fees and direct payments to doctors cornerstones of a government platform.

"The problem is that the draft agreements are always disadvantageous for one side," said political commentator Bohumil Doležel.

Early elections looking better?

Topolánek is getting his second crack at forming a government. He was originally tapped this summer, after former Prime Minister and ČSSD Chairman Jiří­ Paroubek failed to resolve the Chamber mess that followed June's election.

But his first effort failed in a vote of confidence in early October. While the ODS went on to dominate the elections later that month, observers said the party would have needed to ditch Topolánek for another chairman.

President Václav Klaus tapped Topolánek again, however. That's why analysts say Topolánek can now take his time and stretch out negotiations.

But until when? An early vote.

"I think early elections would be the best solution to the situation," Doležel said.

If elections are held during the beginning of next year, the ODS is sure to prevail — and that's why the ČSSD has been loath to discuss them. Doležel said he could see negotiations carry on for another three months.

What is perhaps surprising about all of this is how seemingly little impact months of impasse have had on the country's economy in the short term. Czech markets remain steady, and the crown has seen months of strengthening against both the dollar and the euro, recently hitting all time highs against each.

But it could all be a case of Czechs shrugging their shoulders and not expecting much better. "People distrust politicians," Zbořil said.

Far more harmful, Zbořil said, is what Brussels might be thinking after watching months when nothing much got done here.

"Topolánek doesn't see the consequences of all this. He doesn't see the loss of Czech Republic's trustworthiness. The country is part of the EU and has commitments to it — one of them is to be trustworthy."

Naďa Černá contributed to this report.

Jeffrey White can be reached at jwhite@praguepost.com


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