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Missile base is no sure bet

U.S. elections delay decision on Central European facility

By Hilda Hoy
Staff Writer, The Prague Post
November 15th, 2006 issue

The recent midterm elections in the United States are expected to further delay plans to expand the U.S. missile defense shield into Central Europe.

Czech politicians have been in discussions with the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) for more than two years over plans to build an anti-missile defense base in the country, and Pentagon officials spent this past summer surveying potential sites here and in Poland. The DOD was to decide which country it would ask to host the base by the end of the summer.

Today, however, Czech officials are still waiting for that decision. And after the Democrats swept the Nov. 8 U.S. elections, which led to the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, they'll likely be waiting a while longer, experts say.

"The Pentagon would've been thinking about this [election] for the last few months. I imagine it's been more of a priority than making missile defense decisions," said Daniel Keohane, a senior research fellow at the London-based Center for European Reform.

In October, Gen. Marvin McNamara, deputy director of the Missile Defense Agency (MDA), a branch of the DOD, told reporters in Washington, D.C., that a decision would come at the end of the year. However, with that deadline rapidly approaching, defense officials remain mum on the base's status.

"There's been no development over the past weeks concerning the possibility of a U.S. anti-missile base here," said Zuzana Opletalová, spokeswoman for the Foreign Affairs Ministry. "The only information we have is that a decision is to be made sometime this winter."

DOD officials refused to provide any further details. "I'm not aware of a specific deadline or timeline," said spokesman Lt. Comm. Joseph Carpenter, but added, "Our preference is to make a decision sooner rather than later."

The right geometry

A European outpost would expand the number of bases in the U.S. missile defense shield from two to three. Currently, missile interceptor bases exist only on U.S. territory, in Alaska and California. The military is eager to add a European base to the network, which would be in prime position to intercept missiles from the Middle East, Carpenter said.

Iran is perceived as the biggest threat and, according to the MDA analysis of the Polish and Czech sites, the two countries are equally well positioned to intercept a missile attack, said agency spokesman Rick Lehner. "Both countries would be good, in terms of their geometry," he said.

This information, along with an analysis of each country's infrastructure and resources, was submitted in an MDA report to the DOD about a month ago. "Our role is pretty much completed. We're waiting now for the decision from the secretary of defense," he said.

In the 2007 U.S. federal budget for the fiscal year that began Oct. 1, $30 million (655.8 million Kč) was allocated to cover the costs of preparing the future missile base site for construction, Lehner confirmed. Once construction begins, the site is expected to be fully operational by 2011, he said.

Political turmoil closer to home may also be affecting the U.S. decision. The Czech Republic has been essentially without a government since June, and Russia is making noise over the missile base issue: It is a vocal opponent to a Polish base, and warned in September that such a site would have a negative effect on regional stability and relations.

"The Russians perceive this in an almost paranoid way: 'This is NATO out to get us,' " Keohane said.

Local opposition to a Czech base also appears to be growing, with some politicians calling for a referendum to decide on the issue.

Still, it's not a matter of if, but when, the U.S. military will extend its missile defense system to Europe, Keohane said.

"Certainly, a missile base will be going somewhere. The U.S. has plenty of options."

Hilda Hoy can be reached at hhoy@praguepost.com


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