Senate elections Oct. 20–21, with 204 candidates vying for 27 seats in the 81-seat upper house of Parliament, could break the deadlock that followed an inconclusive national election in June, depending on which way the poll goes, analysts say.

This lack of good will was probably a strategy, says Jiří Pehe, a political analyst and director of New York University in Prague.

"Neither the ODS nor the ČSSD wanted to alienate their voters before the Senate election by backing down to their political opponents," he says. "This aggressive approach suited both parties as they prepared for the Senate election. After the election, the ODS and the ČSSD will probably be more willing to negotiate."

A grand coalition involving the ODS and the ČSSD might still be possible, according to Tomáš Lebeda, a political analyst at the Czech Academy of Sciences. Another option would be a Cabinet of appointed experts which the ODS and the ČSSD would together set up.

"The result of the Senate election will help determine the shape of the next government," says Lebeda.

If both the ČSSD and the ODS gain seats, together they could have a constitutional majority in the Senate, Lebeda says. And this would weaken the smaller parties like the Greens and the Christian Democrats.

Forty of the candidates running for the Senate are women, the highest number ever in this country. Senators serve six-year terms, with one-third of the Senate's seats up for grabs every two years. The ODS currently dominates the Senate, occupying 35 seats. The ČSSD has only six seats.

Paving the way for a new PM

Analysts don't expect that the ČSSD will gain seats, especially if voter apathy — a result of months of political infighting — results in low turnout.

Low turnout always tends to harm the ČSSD, which has a less disciplined pool of voters than, say, the ODS or the Communists, according to Lebeda.

Some right-wingers are hoping that a poor showing for the ČSSD could weaken the position of former Prime Minister and ČSSD Chairman Jiří Paroubek.

Paroubek proved to be one of the biggest obstacles in the postelection talks of the last few months, unwilling to support any form of government led by election winner and ODS Chairman Mirek Topolánek.

"If the ČSSD does badly, Paroubek might be more willing to negotiate than he was before," says Ladislav Cabada, head of the political science department at the University of West Bohemia in Plzeň.

This could mean that Paroubek's Social Democrats might finally agree to support a center-right Cabinet — something they did not do during Topolánek's recent effort to form a government.

The Senate election comes two weeks after Topolánek's Cabinet lost a vote of confidence Oct. 4. Topolánek resigned a week later, but President Václav Klaus asked him to continue running the country until he appoints a new prime minister, entrusted with forming a new Cabinet, after the Senate election.

Whom Klaus will appoint largely depends on the results of the election, analysts say. If the ODS gains senatorial seats, it's likely Klaus will give the ODS another chance at forming a Cabinet.