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December 2nd, 2008
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Paroubek distances himself from TopolánekCanceled debate marks gap between the PM and his ODS adversaryBy Cóilín O'Connor For The Prague Post November 23rd, 2005 issue The muted reaction that has followed Prime Minister Jiří Paroubek's snubbing of his main political opponent, Mirek Topolánek, at a planned Nov. 18 debate may be telling about the diverging fortunes of both men, analysts say. Paroubek canceled the foreign policy debate with Topolánek, leader of the opposition Civic Democrats (ODS), the day before, citing an overbooked calendar, and Topolánek has since been taking great umbrage but gaining little publicity from the slight. The debate, sponsored by the Association for International Affairs think tank, was to be broadcast from the Renaissance Hotel on Czech Television and national radio. In explaining his cancellation, however, Paroubek cited a lack of sufficient publicity as a factor. While Paroubek's popularity remains high, Topolánek, once seen as a serious contender against the prime minister and his Social Democratic Party, has watched his numbers decline over past months. Thus it was that when Topolánek strongly attacked Paroubek's decision to pull out at the last minute as blatantly arrogant and an insult to the public, his comments were only perfunctorily reported in the Czech media. "Topolánek is trying to make political capital out of an unpleasant situation for him," says Jiří Pehe, a political analyst who teaches at the University of New York in Prague. "Paroubek's late withdrawal might indicate that he doesn't see any more mileage in debating with Topolánek, whom he has already defeated on a number of occasions. He perhaps thinks he has better things to do." Paroubek brushed off Topolánek's criticism by saying he could not give priority to the debate amid a busy schedule that included a working lunch with visiting European Union Commissioner José Manuel Barroso. Topolánek, who has fared badly in recent televised debates with the prime minister, denies that the debate was a low-key event and claims that Paroubek's attitude shows he is more interested in good photo opportunities than a "meaningful exchange of opinions." Some political commentators, however, feel that Topolánek's criticisms ring a little hollow.
Zdeněk Zbořil, a political scientist from the Institute of International Relations in Prague, says that Paroubek has no real need to go out of his way to engage Topolánek in any more face-offs. "Paroubek knows very well that Topolánek's popularity is in decline," he says. A new confrontation could allow Topolánek to score some points against him. "So it is in Paroubek's interest to limit his discussions with Topolánek." Paroubek's articulate, uncompromising style has proved a hit with voters and in many ways reversed the fortunes of the Social Democratic Party (ČSSD), which had been rocked by scandals under the short, hapless reign of his predecessor Stanislav Gross. Topolánek's ODS, on the other hand, had by far the highest level of support among voters a year ago, but have now been pegged back by the ČSSD. Although they remain the most popular party, polls indicate they would not garner enough votes in a general election to be able to form a majority government. Topolánek's own approval ratings have plummeted to such a degree that Paroubek is seemingly in no hurry to go head-to-head with him in a public debate. Actually, says Pehe, it's disappointing that this particular discussion was cancelled. He believes it would have been good for the country's foreign policy to undergo a detailed debate in the event of a hung Parliament after the next general election. Such an outcome could necessitate a "grand coalition" of right- and left-wing parties, not unlike the arrangement that recently gave Angela Merkel the chancellorship in Germany. "In a way it is a pity that this subject was not discussed," he says. "If it does come to a grand coalition after the next election, they could probably agree fairly easily on domestic issues but foreign policy could be a stumbling block, especially in view of their different attitudes to the EU." As for popularity, if pundits feel that Paroubek is faring better than Topolánek, not all television audiences agree perhaps another factor on the prime minister's mind when he cancelled. In all their televised debates up to now, SMS polls of audiences have declared Topolánek the winner. Paroubek has responded by suggesting that the ODS's aggressive party machine simply mobilizes members to vote against him via SMS. The prime minister has also blamed Prima TV and TV Nova themselves, calling the mobile phone surveys "a scandalous attempt at manipulating public opinion." But Zbořil says that SMS TV polls will probably pale in significance when it comes to the general election, which is ultimately the only public opinion poll that matters. "Paroubek is losing his popularity with the mass media but not with the public," he says. "The media try to portray him as a knedlík, or dumpling meaning that he is a clumsy oaf of a politician. But they forget that the knedlík is one of the most popular foods in this country." Cóilín O'Connor can be reached at news@praguepost.com Other articles in News (23/11/2005):
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