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Strategic plan for economy lauded

But goals may be overly ambitious, according to analysts

By S. Adam Cardais
Staff Writer, The Prague Post
July 27th, 2005 issue

The government-approved strategic plan designed to grow the country's economy to make it competitive with the European Union average in eight years may be too ambitious, according to economic analysts.

The so-called Economic Growth Strategy for 2007–13 aims to bring per-capita gross domestic product in line with the EU average by boosting the economy with investments in research and development, infrastructure and education.

To reach the target, overall domestic GDP needs to grow 6 percent annually. The strategic plan was drafted and proposed by the office of Deputy Prime Minister for the Economy Martin Jahn.

Economic analysts have lauded the plan's goals to create a knowledge-based economy and more-friendly business environment, but many question the sustainability, or even the possibility, of GDP growing at a rate of 6 percent a year — a 1.6 percent jump over last year — from 2007 to 2013.

"Generally, the strategy is a good thing, but the goal it wants to achieve is very optimistic," said Michal Brožka, a macro analyst at Raiffeisenbank.

Brožka said the strategic plan relies on two assumptions for its success. The first is that the economies of Western Europe will continue to stagnate. The second holds that no external forces, even fluctuations of exchange rates or high demand within the EU for Czech goods, which is currently driving the economy forward, will disrupt GDP growth. While possible, Brožka said achieving the scenario is unlikely.

Martin Kupka, chief economist at ČSOB, agrees. He put the challenge of Jahn's strategy into an even better perspective: "Six percent growth is possible ... if all the obstacles hindering growth are removed." The obstacles he cited include bureaucratic red tape, corruption and the glacial pace of the judicial system, among other things.

For his part, Jahn, the former CEO of the state's inbound investment agency, CzechInvest, and an economist himself, seems to understand that believing in the success of the strategic plan is half the battle.

"This is a very ambitious goal, but I am convinced that if all the conditions are fulfilled and there are no unexpected negative influences from the outside, it could be reached," he said, smiling diffidently and standing before the podium during a press conference to announce the plan's approval.

Jahn appeared serious as he addressed the assembled journalists, perhaps because final approval of the plan, which Jahn and his team had worked on since he joined the government last summer, came at a price: Many of the provisions in the original plan, including major reforms to the pension and health care systems, were watered down during tough negotiations.

Yet Kupka said the strategy still has merit because it looks past the limited possibilities of what the current government coalition can achieve to the future and what other coalitions should strive to achieve. The biggest question, he said, is the number of governments it will take to implement the ideas.

"Really, most of what has been included in the strategy will be brought to life," Kupka said. "The question is how long it will take. I think it's a strategy for a decade."

S. Adam Cardais can be reached at acardais@praguepost.com


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